Cardiff
vs
West Ham
Championship prediction
Our model says: Cardiff 1–2 West Ham
The model makes it 32% Cardiff, 26% draw, 42% West Ham — fair odds of 3.13, 3.85 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Cardiff 1.37, West Ham 1.63.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,028 settled matches.
Edge to West Ham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 21 October 2026. Cardiff's rating is built from 11 Championship matches and West Ham's from 38 Premier League matches, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,246 matches.
Key facts
- Cardiff are 19th on 11 points from 11 games; West Ham are 2nd on 22 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Cardiff have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Middlesbrough.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Swansea.
- Last 6 meetings: West Ham 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 March 2019, ended Cardiff 2–0 West Ham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cardiff vs West Ham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 42% here. Across 4,371 settled matches (as of 21 October 2026), 2,030 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cardiff vs West Ham
Cardiff
- D2-2away to Middlesbrough17 October 2026
- W5-1Watford13 October 2026
- L1-2away to Blackburn10 October 2026
- W3-1Charlton19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bolton12 September 2026
West Ham
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
- W6-0away to Lincoln14 October 2026
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
What these results say
- Cardiff conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cardiff scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Cardiff had three goals or more.
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Cardiff | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 11 |
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Cardiff vs West Ham
Cardiff and West Ham have met 6 times in the records we hold, West Ham has won 5 of them to Cardiff's 1.
The record
Cardiff won the last one 2–0 on 9 Mar 2019.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 13 |
| West Ham | 5 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 5 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 9 Mar 2019
Premier LeagueCardiff 2–0 West Ham - 4 Dec 2018
Premier LeagueWest Ham 3–1 Cardiff - 11 Jan 2014
Premier LeagueCardiff 0–2 West Ham - 24 Sep 2013
League CupWest Ham 3–2 Cardiff - 17 Aug 2013
Premier LeagueWest Ham 2–0 Cardiff - 7 May 2012
ChampionshipWest Ham 3–0 Cardiff
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
Leading scorers: Cardiff and West Ham
Cardiff
GoalsAssists
- J. Moylan63
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Cardiff carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.77 for West Ham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Cardiff and 1.63 for West Ham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Cardiff rate 0.85 in attack and 1.49 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Ham rate 0.92 and 1.07.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cardiff a 0.4% chance of the title and West Ham 30.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,110 correct results out of 4,378 settled predictions (48%), with 443 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cardiff against 1.63 for West Ham. Cardiff's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.49 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.07 for West Ham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Cardiff at home · West Ham away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
CardiffWest Ham
Cardiff are 19th after 11 Championship matches (between 11th and 22nd so far); West Ham are 2nd after 11 (between 1st and 19th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Cardiff 11, West Ham 11.
Cardiff score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); West Ham have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Cardiff
- vs Burnley7 Nov · Championshipwin 36%
- at Norwich21 Nov · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Preston24 Nov · Championshipwin 60%
West Ham
- at Blackburn7 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- vs Preston21 Nov · Championshipwin 69%
- at Portsmouth24 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.