Brighton
vs
Newcastle
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Brighton 2–0 Newcastle
The model makes it 64% Brighton, 21% draw, 15% Newcastle — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Brighton 2.39, Newcastle 0.94.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
One-sided: Brighton are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Brighton's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Newcastle's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Brighton are 2nd on 22 points from 10 games; Newcastle are 12th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Brighton have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Brentford.
- Newcastle have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fulham.
- Last 6 meetings: Brighton 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Newcastle 3–1 Brighton.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Brighton vs Newcastle
Has the model earned this number?
Brighton at 64%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Brighton vs Newcastle
Brighton
Premier League
- W2-0Brentford8 November 2026
- W1-0away to Manchester City31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Liverpool25 October 2026
- W5-0Crystal Palace18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sunderland10 October 2026
Newcastle
Premier League
- D1-1away to Fulham7 November 2026
- L0-1Everton2 November 2026
- W2-0away to Crystal Palace25 October 2026
- L0-1Aston Villa17 October 2026
- L1-4away to Coventry12 October 2026
What these results say
- Brighton won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brighton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Brighton kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Newcastle conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newcastle had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Brighton | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 7 | +19 | 22 |
| 12 | Newcastle | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Brighton vs Newcastle
Brighton and Newcastle have met 6 times in the records we hold, Brighton has won 3 of them to Newcastle's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Newcastle won the last one 3–1 on 2 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Newcastle | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 2 May 2026
Premier LeagueNewcastle 3–1 Brighton - 18 Oct 2025
Premier LeagueBrighton 2–1 Newcastle - 4 May 2025
Premier LeagueBrighton 1–1 Newcastle - 2 Mar 2025
FA CupNewcastle 1–2 Brighton - 19 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueNewcastle 0–1 Brighton - 11 May 2024
Premier LeagueNewcastle 1–1 Brighton
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Brighton's attack rates 39% above Newcastle's, and Brighton concede 36% fewer than Newcastle. That gives Brighton the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Brighton and Newcastle
Brighton
GoalsAssists
- P. Groß44
- C. Kostoulas32
Newcastle
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 13 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Brighton a 16.5% chance of the title and Newcastle 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Brighton the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.39 expected goals for Brighton against 0.94 for Newcastle. Brighton's attack/defence rating is 1.4/0.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.01/1.07 for Newcastle.
How the model reaches 64% for Brighton to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Brighton to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Brighton's ratings add 11 points and Newcastle's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Brighton's ratings52%+11
- Newcastle's ratings64%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Brighton at home · Newcastle away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BrightonNewcastle
Brighton are 2nd after 10 Premier League matches (between 1st and 9th so far); Newcastle are 12th after 10 (between 3rd and 13th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Brighton 10, Newcastle 10.
Brighton score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Newcastle have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Brighton
- at Bournemouth2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Nottingham Forest5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Monaco10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
Newcastle
- vs Manchester United2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Sunderland6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
- at Ipswich12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Brentford19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 25%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.