Fulham
vs
Bournemouth
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Fulham 0–1 Bournemouth
The model makes it 32% Fulham, 29% draw, 39% Bournemouth — fair odds of 3.13, 3.45 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.17, Bournemouth 1.37.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,325 settled matches.
Edge to Bournemouth: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Fulham's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Bournemouth's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Fulham are 15th on 10 points from 10 games; Bournemouth are 7th on 15 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Fulham are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle.
- Bournemouth are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Ipswich.
- Last 6 meetings: Bournemouth 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Fulham 0–1 Bournemouth.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fulham vs Bournemouth
Has the model earned this number?
Bournemouth at 39%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fulham vs Bournemouth
Fulham
Premier League
- D1-1Newcastle7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Aston Villa31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry24 October 2026
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
Bournemouth
Premier League
- W2-1away to Ipswich8 November 2026
- W2-0Leeds31 October 2026
- W3-0away to Manchester United25 October 2026
- W2-0Sunderland18 October 2026
- L1-5away to Chelsea10 October 2026
What these results say
- Fulham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fulham had two goals or fewer.
- Bournemouth scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bournemouth won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | Bournemouth | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Bournemouth vs Fulham
Bournemouth and Fulham have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bournemouth has won 4 of them to Fulham's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
Bournemouth won the last one 1–0 on 9 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 6 |
| Fulham | 1 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 9 May 2026
Premier LeagueFulham 0–1 Bournemouth - 3 Oct 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 3–1 Fulham - 14 Apr 2025
Premier LeagueBournemouth 1–0 Fulham - 29 Dec 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 2–2 Bournemouth - 10 Feb 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 3–1 Bournemouth - 26 Dec 2023
Premier LeagueBournemouth 3–0 Fulham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bournemouth's attack rates 43% above Fulham's, and Fulham concede 4% fewer than Bournemouth. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 1.17 | 0.89 |
| Fulham | 0.82 | 0.85 |
Leading scorers: Fulham and Bournemouth
Fulham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Bournemouth
GoalsAssists
- Evanilson54
- M. Tavernier50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fulham a 0% chance of the title and Bournemouth 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bournemouth the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Fulham against 1.37 for Bournemouth. Fulham's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.17/0.89 for Bournemouth.
How the model reaches 39% for Bournemouth to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bournemouth to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Fulham's ratings add 3 points and Bournemouth's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Fulham's ratings35%+3
- Bournemouth's ratings39%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fulham at home · Bournemouth away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
FulhamBournemouth
Fulham are 15th after 10 Premier League matches (between 12th and 19th so far); Bournemouth are 7th after 10 (between 6th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Fulham 10, Bournemouth 10.
Bournemouth score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Fulham have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Fulham
- at Tottenham3 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- at Everton6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Brentford12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Leeds19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
Bournemouth
- vs Brighton2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Hull City5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- vs Plzen10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 51%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.