Boca Juniors
vs
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Boca Juniors 1–0 Defensa Y Justicia
The model makes it 52% Boca Juniors, 26% draw, 22% Defensa Y Justicia — fair odds of 1.92, 3.85 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.71, Defensa Y Justicia 0.92.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,563 settled matches.
Edge to Boca Juniors: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Boca Juniors's rating is built from 67 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Defensa Y Justicia's from 62, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Boca Juniors are 3rd on 24 points from 13 games; Defensa Y Justicia are 2nd on 27 points from 14 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A.
- Boca Juniors are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Talleres Cordoba.
- Defensa Y Justicia have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Talleres Cordoba.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 April 2026, ended Defensa Y Justicia 0–4 Boca Juniors.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Boca Juniors at 52% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1Talleres Cordoba17 October 2026
- D2-2away to Instituto Cordoba9 October 2026
- W3-0Union Santa Fe3 October 2026
- W2-0away to San Lorenzo20 September 2026
- W3-1Central Cordoba de Santiago12 September 2026
Defensa Y Justicia
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W2-1away to Talleres Cordoba24 October 2026
- L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Union Santa Fe10 October 2026
- W3-0San Lorenzo3 October 2026
- D2-2away to Central Cordoba de Santiago18 September 2026
What these results say
- Boca Juniors went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Boca Juniors won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Defensa Y Justicia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 21 | 14 | +7 | 24 |
| 2 | Defensa Y Justicia | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Boca Juniors vs Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 2 each, with 2 drawn.
The record
Boca Juniors won the last one 4–0 on 23 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 5 |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDefensa Y Justicia 0–4 Boca Juniors - 27 Sep 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDefensa Y Justicia 2–1 Boca Juniors - 16 Mar 2025
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBoca Juniors 4–0 Defensa Y Justicia - 21 Jul 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaDefensa Y Justicia 2–2 Boca Juniors - 10 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalBoca Juniors 0–0 Defensa Y Justicia - 15 Sep 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalDefensa Y Justicia 1–0 Boca Juniors
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Juniors | 1.08 | 1.08 |
| Defensa Y Justicia | 0.92 | 1.29 |
Leading scorers: Boca Juniors and Defensa Y Justicia
Boca Juniors
GoalsAssists
- M. Merentiel92
Defensa Y Justicia
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 20 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Boca Juniors carry a model rating of 6.85 against 6.68 for Defensa Y Justicia. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for Boca Juniors and 0.92 for Defensa Y Justicia. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Boca Juniors rate 1.08 in attack and 1.08 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Defensa Y Justicia rate 0.92 and 1.29.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Defensa Y Justicia, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Boca Juniors a 9.3% chance of the title and Defensa Y Justicia 6.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Boca Juniors the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Boca Juniors against 0.92 for Defensa Y Justicia. Boca Juniors's attack/defence rating is 1.08/1.08 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.29 for Defensa Y Justicia.
How the model reaches 52% for Boca Juniors to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Boca Juniors to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Boca Juniors's ratings add 1 point and Defensa Y Justicia's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 52%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Boca Juniors's ratings42%+1
- Defensa Y Justicia's ratings52%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Boca Juniors at home · Defensa Y Justicia away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Boca Juniors 30, Defensa Y Justicia 29.
Boca Juniors score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Defensa Y Justicia have let in 12 there.
Defensa Y Justicia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Boca Juniors have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Boca Juniors
- at Atletico Mineiro21 Nov · CONMEBOL Sudamericanawin 30%
Defensa Y Justicia
No further matches on our board yet.
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.