Monaco
vs
Auxerre
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Monaco 2–1 Auxerre
The model makes it 62% Monaco, 21% draw, 17% Auxerre — fair odds of 1.61, 4.76 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Monaco 2.40, Auxerre 1.02.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Monaco are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Monaco's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Auxerre's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.
Key facts
- Monaco are 7th on 16 points from 10 games; Auxerre are 14th on 10 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
- Monaco have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Le Mans.
- Auxerre are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Paris FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Monaco 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Monaco 2–2 Auxerre.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monaco vs Auxerre
Has the model earned this number?
Monaco at 62%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Monaco vs Auxerre
Monaco
Ligue 1
- D1-1away to Le Mans8 November 2026
- L1-3away to Paris FC1 November 2026
- D1-1Lille25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Lorient18 October 2026
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
Auxerre
Ligue 1
- L0-1Paris FC7 November 2026
- L1-5away to Strasbourg1 November 2026
- D1-1Le Mans25 October 2026
- W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
- L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026
What these results say
- Monaco did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Auxerre scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Monaco | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 16 |
| 14 | Auxerre | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Monaco
Chance to finish in the top three · 20% today
Auxerre
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 19% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Monaco
Auxerre and Monaco have met 6 times in the records we hold, Monaco has won 5 of them to Auxerre's 0, with 1 drawn.
The record
They drew 2–2 at Monaco on 19 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
| Monaco | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 24 goals, an average of 4.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Apr 2026
Ligue 1Monaco 2–2 Auxerre - 21 Dec 2025
Coupe de FranceAuxerre 1–2 Monaco - 13 Sep 2025
Ligue 1Auxerre 1–2 Monaco - 1 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Monaco 4–2 Auxerre - 14 Sep 2024
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–3 Monaco - 1 Feb 2023
Ligue 1Monaco 3–2 Auxerre
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Monaco's attack rates 39% above Auxerre's, and Monaco concede 27% fewer than Auxerre. That gives Monaco the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Monaco and Auxerre
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Auxerre
GoalsAssists
- C. Archer60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monaco a 1.4% chance of the title and Auxerre 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Monaco against 1.02 for Auxerre. Monaco's attack/defence rating is 1.11/0.93 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.8/1.28 for Auxerre.
How the model reaches 62% for Monaco to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Monaco to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, Monaco's ratings add 9 points and Auxerre's ratings add 10 points, which lands on the published 62%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Monaco's ratings52%+9
- Auxerre's ratings62%+10
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Monaco at home · Auxerre away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
MonacoAuxerre
Monaco are 7th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Auxerre are 14th after 10 (between 9th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Monaco 10, Auxerre 10.
Monaco score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Auxerre have let in 5 there.
Auxerre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Monaco have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Monaco
- at Heart of Midlothian26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 52%
- at Lyon29 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs Angers5 Dec · Ligue 1win 67%
- at Brighton10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 16%
- at Rennes13 Dec · Ligue 1win 39%
Auxerre
- vs Marseille29 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
- at Lille5 Dec · Ligue 1win 14%
- vs Toulouse11 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
- at Lorient2 Jan · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Estac Troyes16 Jan · Ligue 1win 44%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.