Regular Season - 12 · 29 November 2026, 14:00 UTC

Auxerre vs Marseille Ligue 1 prediction

Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps, Auxerre

Our model says: Auxerre 1–2 Marseille

The model makes it 23% Auxerre, 23% draw, 54% Marseille — fair odds of 4.35, 4.35 and 1.85.

Most likely scoreline: 1-2 (9%).

Expected goals: Auxerre 1.32, Marseille 2.29.

Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.

One-sided: Marseille are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 15 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. Auxerre's rating is built from 44 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Marseille's from 44, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 705 matches.

Key facts

Auxerre are 14th on 10 points from 10 games; Marseille are 4th on 18 points from 10 games — Ligue 1.
Auxerre are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Paris FC.
Marseille are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Lens.
Last 6 meetings: Marseille 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 13 March 2026, ended Marseille 1–0 Auxerre.

More Ligue 1 (France) predictions

All Ligue 1 (France) predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Auxerre vs Marseille

66%

Both teams to score

70%

Over 2.5 goals

30%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Auxerre win Draw Marseille win

1–29%
1–19%
1–37%
0–27%
2–26%
0–16%
0–35%

Scores read Auxerre first; the other scorelines share the remaining 51%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Marseille at 54%: of 1,648 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.6% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Auxerre vs Marseille

Auxerre

Ligue 1

L0-1Paris FC7 November 2026
L1-5away to Strasbourg1 November 2026
D1-1Le Mans25 October 2026
W3-1away to Le Havre18 October 2026
L1-4away to Rennes11 October 2026

Marseille

Ligue 1

W2-1away to Lens8 November 2026
W2-0Toulouse1 November 2026
W4-3Le Havre25 October 2026
W5-2away to Angers18 October 2026
W2-0away to Estac Troyes11 October 2026

What these results say

Auxerre conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Auxerre failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Auxerre scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Marseille won every one of these 5 matches.
Marseille scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 1 table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
14	Auxerre	10	3	1	6	13	24	-11	10
4	Marseille	10	6	0	4	22	14	+8	18

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Auxerre vs Marseille

Auxerre and Marseille have met 6 times in the records we hold, Marseille has won 4 of them to Auxerre's 2.

The record

Marseille won the last one 1–0 on 13 Mar 2026.

Club	W	D	L	GF	GA
Auxerre	2	0	4	7	7
Marseille	4	0	2	7	7

Between them these 6 meetings produced 14 goals, an average of 2.33 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

13 Mar 2026
Ligue 1Marseille 1–0 Auxerre
1 Nov 2025
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–1 Marseille
22 Feb 2025
Ligue 1Auxerre 3–0 Marseille
8 Nov 2024
Ligue 1Marseille 1–3 Auxerre
30 Apr 2023
Ligue 1Marseille 2–1 Auxerre
3 Sep 2022
Ligue 1Auxerre 0–2 Marseille

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Marseille's attack rates 63% above Auxerre's, and Marseille concede 23% fewer than Auxerre. That gives Marseille the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.

Club	Attack	Defence
Auxerre	0.80	1.28
Marseille	1.30	0.98

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Leading scorers: Auxerre and Marseille

Auxerre

GoalsAssists

C. Archer60

Marseille

GoalsAssists

A. Gouiri73
A. Harit31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Auxerre a 0% chance of the title and Marseille 4.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Auxerre Marseille

0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 1.3

1.28 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 0.98

1.32 Model expected goals (this match) 2.29

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Marseille the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Auxerre against 2.29 for Marseille. Auxerre's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.3/0.98 for Marseille.

Auxerre carry a model rating of 6.62 against 7 for Marseille.

How the model reaches 54% for Marseille to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Marseille to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Auxerre's ratings add 10 points and Marseille's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 54%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage31%−6
Both sides at this match's level32%+1
Auxerre's ratings42%+10
Marseille's ratings54%+12

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

AuxerreModelMarseille

Over 1.5 goals

80%

8 of 10 games

88%

model, this match

90%

9 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

70%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

49%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

80%

8 of 10 games

66%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

AuxerreMarseille

10Matches10

3W 1D 6LRecord6W 0D 4L

13 1.3 per gameGoals scored22 2.2 per game

24 2.4 per gameGoals conceded14 1.4 per game

1 of 10Clean sheets3 of 10

1 of 10Failed to score2 of 10

1 of 1Penalties scored2 of 3

21 2.1 per gameYellow cards16 1.6 per game

2Red cards1

3-4-2-1 4×Usual shape4-2-3-1 5×

Auxerre at home · Marseille away

5Played5

2W 1D 2LRecord3W 0D 2L

5–6Goals for – against9–6

1 of 5Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Ligue 1, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

AuxerreMarseille

Auxerre are 14th after 10 Ligue 1 matches (between 9th and 18th so far); Marseille are 4th after 10 (between 1st and 17th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ligue 1 matches this season: Auxerre 10, Marseille 10.

Auxerre scored 013351

Marseille conceded 320234

Auxerre score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Marseille have let in 3 there.

Marseille scored 413625

Auxerre conceded 322557

Marseille score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Auxerre have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Auxerre

at Lille5 Dec · Ligue 1win 13%
vs Toulouse11 Dec · Ligue 1win 32%
at Lorient2 Jan · Ligue 1win 23%
vs Estac Troyes16 Jan · Ligue 1win 44%

Marseille

vs Nice6 Dec · Ligue 1win 56%
vs Celta Vigo10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 52%
at Lyon13 Dec · Ligue 1win 37%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.