Banfield
vs
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Banfield 1–0 Atletico Tucuman
The model makes it 40% Banfield, 30% draw, 30% Atletico Tucuman — fair odds of 2.50, 3.33 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Banfield 1.25, Atletico Tucuman 1.00.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,224 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Banfield's rating is built from 62 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Atletico Tucuman's from 62, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,345 matches.
Key facts
- Banfield are 11th on 14 points from 14 games; Atletico Tucuman are 10th on 17 points from 14 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Banfield have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Lanus.
- Atletico Tucuman have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Tigre.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Banfield.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Banfield at 40% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 2,217 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Banfield vs Atletico Tucuman
Banfield
Liga Profesional Argentina
- D1-1Lanus24 October 2026
- L0-1Argentinos Juniors17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Tigre10 October 2026
- D1-1Rosario Central6 October 2026
- D2-2away to Gimnasia La Plata19 September 2026
Atletico Tucuman
Liga Profesional Argentina
- W1-0away to Tigre24 October 2026
- L2-3Rosario Central17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026
- L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
What these results say
- Banfield conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Banfield failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Banfield scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Banfield | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Atletico Tucuman | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Tucuman vs Banfield
Atletico Tucuman and Banfield have met 6 times in the records we hold, they have won 1 each, with 4 drawn.
The record
They drew 1–1 at Atletico Tucuman on 26 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 1 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 5 |
| Banfield | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 8 goals, an average of 1.33 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 26 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 1–1 Banfield - 20 Jul 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaBanfield 1–1 Atletico Tucuman - 7 Mar 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalAtletico Tucuman 0–3 Banfield - 16 Oct 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalBanfield 0–0 Atletico Tucuman - 5 Mar 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 1–0 Banfield - 6 Sep 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 0–0 Banfield
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Tucuman | 0.73 | 1.27 |
| Banfield | 0.80 | 1.48 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Banfield carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.57 for Atletico Tucuman. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Banfield and 1.00 for Atletico Tucuman. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Banfield rate 0.80 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Atletico Tucuman rate 0.73 and 1.27.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Banfield the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Banfield against 1.00 for Atletico Tucuman. Banfield's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.27 for Atletico Tucuman.
How the model reaches 40% for Banfield to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 34% for Banfield to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Banfield's ratings take away 13 points and Atletico Tucuman's ratings add 12 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground34%
- Home advantage41%+7
- Banfield's ratings28%−13
- Atletico Tucuman's ratings40%+12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Banfield at home · Atletico Tucuman away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Banfield 30, Atletico Tucuman 29.
Atletico Tucuman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Banfield have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.