Atletico Mineiro
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 46% Atletico Mineiro, 28% draw, 26% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.17, 3.57 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 1.53, Vasco da Gama 1.00.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,952 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- Atletico Mineiro are 7th on 51 points from 35 games; Vasco da Gama are 11th on 44 points from 34 games — Serie A.
- Atletico Mineiro are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Mirassol.
- Vasco da Gama have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Chapecoense.
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico Mineiro 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 May 2026, ended Vasco da Gama 0–1 Atletico Mineiro.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
Atletico Mineiro at 46%: of 2,957 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
Atletico Mineiro
Serie A
- D0-0away to Mirassol14 November 2026
- L0-1away to Botafogo5 November 2026
- L0-1Cruzeiro29 October 2026
- L2-3away to Flamengo26 October 2026
- W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- W2-0away to Chapecoense14 November 2026
- W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
- L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
- W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Mineiro failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Atletico Mineiro had two goals or fewer.
- Vasco da Gama scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico Mineiro | 35 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 44 | 40 | +4 | 51 |
| 11 | Vasco da Gama | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Vasco da Gama
Atletico Mineiro and Vasco da Gama have met 6 times in the records we hold, Atletico Mineiro has won 3 of them to Vasco da Gama's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Atletico Mineiro won the last one 1–0 on 31 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
| Vasco da Gama | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 15 goals, an average of 2.50 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 31 May 2026
Serie AVasco da Gama 0–1 Atletico Mineiro - 7 Dec 2025
Serie AAtletico Mineiro 5–0 Vasco da Gama - 10 Aug 2025
Serie AVasco da Gama 1–1 Atletico Mineiro - 4 Dec 2024
Serie AVasco da Gama 2–0 Atletico Mineiro - 19 Oct 2024
Copa Do BrasilVasco da Gama 1–1 Atletico Mineiro - 2 Oct 2024
Copa Do BrasilAtletico Mineiro 2–1 Vasco da Gama
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Vasco da Gama's attack rates 16% above Atletico Mineiro's, and Atletico Mineiro concede 21% fewer than Vasco da Gama. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Mineiro | 0.80 | 0.96 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0.93 | 1.21 |
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 1.00 for Vasco da Gama. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.8/0.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.93/1.21 for Vasco da Gama.
How the model reaches 46% for Atletico Mineiro to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Mineiro to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Atletico Mineiro's ratings change nothing and Vasco da Gama's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- Both sides at this match's level44%−1
- Atletico Mineiro's ratings44%±0
- Vasco da Gama's ratings46%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Atletico Mineiro at home · Vasco da Gama away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Mineiro 35, Vasco da Gama 34.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (16 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Atletico Mineiro
- at Bahia3 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
Vasco da Gama
- vs Vitoria3 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.