Aston Villa
vs
Sunderland
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Aston Villa 2–1 Sunderland
The model makes it 57% Aston Villa, 23% draw, 20% Sunderland — fair odds of 1.75, 4.35 and 5.00.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (10%).
Expected goals: Aston Villa 2.17, Sunderland 1.08.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Aston Villa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Aston Villa's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Sunderland's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Aston Villa are 10th on 13 points from 10 games; Sunderland are 19th on 8 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 4-4 draw away to Manchester United.
- Sunderland have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Chelsea.
- Last 6 meetings: Aston Villa 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Has the model earned this number?
Aston Villa at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Aston Villa
Premier League
- D4-4away to Manchester United8 November 2026
- D1-1Fulham31 October 2026
- W2-1Manchester City24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Newcastle17 October 2026
- D2-2Brentford10 October 2026
Sunderland
Premier League
- W1-0Chelsea8 November 2026
- L1-3away to Coventry31 October 2026
- D0-0Leeds25 October 2026
- L0-2away to Bournemouth18 October 2026
- L0-2Brighton10 October 2026
What these results say
- Aston Villa went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Aston Villa conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sunderland failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sunderland had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Aston Villa | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 13 |
| 19 | Sunderland | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Aston Villa
Chance to finish in the top four · 18% today
Sunderland
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 42% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Aston Villa vs Sunderland
Aston Villa and Sunderland have met 6 times in the records we hold, Aston Villa has won 3 of them to Sunderland's 1, with 2 drawn.
The record
Aston Villa won the last one 4–3 on 19 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 10 |
| Sunderland | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 23 goals, an average of 3.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Apr 2026
Premier LeagueAston Villa 4–3 Sunderland - 21 Sep 2025
Premier LeagueSunderland 1–1 Aston Villa - 6 Mar 2018
ChampionshipSunderland 0–3 Aston Villa - 21 Nov 2017
ChampionshipAston Villa 2–1 Sunderland - 2 Jan 2016
Premier LeagueSunderland 3–1 Aston Villa - 29 Aug 2015
Premier LeagueAston Villa 2–2 Sunderland
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Aston Villa's attack rates 68% above Sunderland's, and Aston Villa concede 3% fewer than Sunderland. That gives Aston Villa the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 1.36 | 0.97 |
| Sunderland | 0.81 | 1.00 |
Leading scorers: Aston Villa and Sunderland
Aston Villa
GoalsAssists
- N. Jackson61
Sunderland
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 8 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Aston Villa a 0.3% chance of the title and Sunderland 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Aston Villa the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Aston Villa against 1.08 for Sunderland. Aston Villa's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1 for Sunderland.
How the model reaches 57% for Aston Villa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Aston Villa to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, Aston Villa's ratings add 9 points and Sunderland's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Aston Villa's ratings50%+9
- Sunderland's ratings57%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Aston Villa at home · Sunderland away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Aston VillaSunderland
Aston Villa are 10th after 10 Premier League matches (between 6th and 20th so far); Sunderland are 19th after 10 (between 10th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Aston Villa 10, Sunderland 10.
Aston Villa score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Sunderland have let in 2 there.
Sunderland score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Aston Villa have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Aston Villa
- at Galatasaray24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 46%
- at Ipswich28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- vs Everton2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 49%
- vs Crystal Palace5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- vs Paris Saint Germain8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 34%
Sunderland
- vs Jagiellonia26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 45%
- vs Tottenham29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- at Liverpool2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 16%
- at Newcastle6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- at AC Milan10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 15%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.