AS Roma
vs
Monza
Serie A prediction
Our model says: AS Roma 3–0 Monza
The model makes it 76% AS Roma, 15% draw, 9% Monza — fair odds of 1.32, 6.67 and 11.11.
Most likely scoreline: 3-0 (9%).
Expected goals: AS Roma 3.24, Monza 0.90.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,153 settled matches.
One-sided: AS Roma are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 15 November 2026. AS Roma's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Monza's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- AS Roma are 3rd on 27 points from 11 games; Monza are 18th on 7 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sassuolo.
- Monza are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Atalanta.
- Last 6 meetings: AS Roma 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2025, ended AS Roma 4–0 Monza.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AS Roma vs Monza
Has the model earned this number?
AS Roma at 76%: of 505 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.3% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AS Roma vs Monza
AS Roma
Serie A
- W3-0Sassuolo7 November 2026
- W5-2away to Udinese31 October 2026
- W4-2Cagliari27 October 2026
- D3-3away to Napoli24 October 2026
- W2-0Genoa17 October 2026
Monza
Serie A
- L0-1Atalanta8 November 2026
- L1-2away to Bologna31 October 2026
- L1-4Napoli28 October 2026
- L2-3away to Torino23 October 2026
- W4-0Cagliari19 October 2026
What these results say
- AS Roma went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- AS Roma scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- AS Roma won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monza failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monza scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monza conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | AS Roma | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 18 | Monza | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Roma vs Monza
AS Roma and Monza have met 6 times in the records we hold, AS Roma has won 4 of them to Monza's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
AS Roma won the last one 4–0 on 24 Feb 2025.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 3 |
| Monza | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 14 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 Feb 2025
Serie AAS Roma 4–0 Monza - 6 Oct 2024
Serie AMonza 1–1 AS Roma - 2 Mar 2024
Serie AMonza 1–4 AS Roma - 22 Oct 2023
Serie AAS Roma 1–0 Monza - 3 May 2023
Serie AMonza 1–1 AS Roma - 30 Aug 2022
Serie AAS Roma 3–0 Monza
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, AS Roma's attack rates 61% above Monza's, and AS Roma concede 51% fewer than Monza. That gives AS Roma the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: AS Roma and Monza
AS Roma
GoalsAssists
- D. Malen82
- Rodrigo Mora40
Monza
GoalsAssists
- Gustavo Varela91
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AS Roma a 42.6% chance of the title and Monza 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Roma the highest probability at 76%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 3.24 expected goals for AS Roma against 0.90 for Monza. AS Roma's attack/defence rating is 1.69/0.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.36 for Monza.
How the model reaches 76% for AS Roma to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AS Roma to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, AS Roma's ratings add 18 points and Monza's ratings add 18 points, which lands on the published 76%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Both sides at this match's level40%+2
- AS Roma's ratings58%+18
- Monza's ratings76%+18
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
AS Roma at home · Monza away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
AS RomaMonza
AS Roma are 3rd after 11 Serie A matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Monza are 18th after 11 (between 13th and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: AS Roma 11, Monza 11.
AS Roma score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Monza have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
AS Roma
- at Bologna4 Dec · Serie Awin 55%
- vs Sporting CP8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 57%
- at Lazio13 Dec · Serie Awin 47%
Monza
- vs Como5 Dec · Serie Awin 19%
- at Juventus14 Dec · Serie Awin 18%
- at Venezia20 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- vs AC Milan2 Jan · Serie Awin 20%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.