Atletico Tucuman
vs
Argentinos Juniors
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Atletico Tucuman 0–1 Argentinos Juniors
The model makes it 29% Atletico Tucuman, 33% draw, 38% Argentinos Juniors — fair odds of 3.45, 3.03 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Atletico Tucuman 0.88, Argentinos Juniors 1.06.
Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 916 settled matches.
Edge to Argentinos Juniors: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Atletico Tucuman are 10th on 14 points from 13 games; Argentinos Juniors are 2nd on 25 points from 13 games — Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B.
- Atletico Tucuman have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Rosario Central.
- Argentinos Juniors are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Banfield.
- Last 6 meetings: Argentinos Juniors 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 April 2026, ended Argentinos Juniors 1–0 Atletico Tucuman.
More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos Juniors
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Argentinos Juniors at 38% here. Across 4,324 settled matches (as of 20 October 2026), 3,359 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Atletico Tucuman vs Argentinos Juniors
Atletico Tucuman
- L2-3Rosario Central17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gimnasia La Plata9 October 2026
- L2-3Barracas Central3 October 2026
- L0-1away to Aldosivi21 September 2026
- L1-2River Plate12 September 2026
Argentinos Juniors
- W1-0away to Banfield17 October 2026
- D1-1away to Platense11 October 2026
- W2-1Tigre4 October 2026
- L0-1away to Rosario Central20 September 2026
- D1-1Gimnasia La Plata13 September 2026
What these results say
- Atletico Tucuman did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Atletico Tucuman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Argentinos Juniors conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Argentinos Juniors had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Atletico Tucuman | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 14 |
| 2 | Argentinos Juniors | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 11 | +6 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Atletico Tucuman
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 18% today
Argentinos Juniors
Chance to finish top of the Clausura Group A
From our Liga Profesional Argentina season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Argentinos Juniors vs Atletico Tucuman
Argentinos Juniors and Atletico Tucuman have met 6 times in the records we hold, Argentinos Juniors has won 2 of them to Atletico Tucuman's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Argentinos Juniors won the last one 1–0 on 19 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Atletico Tucuman | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 19 Apr 2026
Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentinos Juniors 1–0 Atletico Tucuman - 30 Sep 2024
Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentinos Juniors 0–0 Atletico Tucuman - 7 Feb 2024
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalAtletico Tucuman 0–0 Argentinos Juniors - 3 Sep 2023
Copa de la Liga ProfesionalArgentinos Juniors 2–2 Atletico Tucuman - 13 May 2023
Liga Profesional ArgentinaAtletico Tucuman 1–2 Argentinos Juniors - 20 Sep 2022
Liga Profesional ArgentinaArgentinos Juniors 1–2 Atletico Tucuman
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Argentinos Juniors | 0.86 | 0.99 |
| Atletico Tucuman | 0.72 | 1.33 |
The two sides
Atletico Tucuman carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.78 for Argentinos Juniors. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.88 goals for Atletico Tucuman and 1.06 for Argentinos Juniors. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Atletico Tucuman rate 0.72 in attack and 1.33 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Argentinos Juniors rate 0.86 and 0.99.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,080 correct results out of 4,327 settled predictions (48%), with 438 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Argentinos Juniors the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Atletico Tucuman against 1.06 for Argentinos Juniors. Atletico Tucuman's attack/defence rating is 0.72/1.33 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/0.99 for Argentinos Juniors.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Atletico Tucuman at home · Argentinos Juniors away
League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Atletico Tucuman 28, Argentinos Juniors 32.
Atletico Tucuman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Argentinos Juniors have let in 3 there.
Argentinos Juniors score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Atletico Tucuman have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Atletico Tucuman
- at Banfield8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 29%
Argentinos Juniors
- vs Huracan8 Nov · Liga Profesional Argentinawin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.