The model on 15 October: 33 out of 56
Of the 56 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Thursday 15 October 2026, it called the result of 33 (59%). It named the exact scoreline 6 times. Across all 3,802 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
By competition
- UEFA Europa Conference League: 13 of 18
- UEFA Europa League: 12 of 18
- Major League Soccer: 4 of 9
- 1. Lig: 2 of 3
- Pro League: 1 of 3
- CONMEBOL Libertadores: 0 of 1
- I Liga: 0 of 1
- League One: 0 of 1
- 2 other competitions: 1 of 2
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Sparta Praha 1-1 Lillestrom: the model had Sparta Praha at 67%.
- Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1-1 FC Midtjylland: the model had FC Midtjylland at 62%.
- Union St. Gilloise 1-1 Real Sociedad: the model had Union St. Gilloise at 61%.
Exact scorelines
- Brighton 4-0 Kauno Žalgiris: the exact score it named, with Brighton at 88%.
- St. Truiden 2-0 FC Iberia 1999: the exact score it named, with St. Truiden at 74%.
- Rennes 2-1 OFI: the exact score it named, with Rennes at 65%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.