The model on 11 October: 82 out of 172
Of the 172 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Sunday 11 October 2026, it called the result of 82 (48%). It named the exact scoreline 20 times. Across all 3,600 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 48%.
By competition
- Major League Soccer: 2 of 6
- Serie A (Brazil): 5 of 6
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 2 of 5
- Serie A (Italy): 2 of 5
- Serie B (Brazil): 0 of 5
- Eliteserien: 0 of 4
- Eredivisie: 1 of 4
- I Liga: 1 of 4
- 51 other competitions: 69 of 133
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Union St. Gilloise 1-1 OH Leuven: the model had Union St. Gilloise at 74%.
- CF Pachuca 3-3 Necaxa: the model had CF Pachuca at 60%.
- Lusitânia Lourosa 1-1 Chaves: the model had Lusitânia Lourosa at 60%.
Exact scorelines
- Benfica 2-0 Vitória SC: the exact score it named, with Benfica at 73%.
- Cherno More Varna 0-2 Levski Sofia: the exact score it named, with Levski Sofia at 64%.
- River Plate 1-0 Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto: the exact score it named, with River Plate at 63%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.