The model on 9 October: 49 out of 84
Of the 84 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Friday 9 October 2026, it called the result of 49 (58%). It named the exact scoreline 8 times. Across all 3,202 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- Eerste Divisie: 7 of 10
- Challenge League: 2 of 5
- Ligue 2: 3 of 5
- 1. Lig: 2 of 4
- K League 1: 3 of 3
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 0 of 3
- Pro League: 3 of 3
- Super League: 1 of 3
- 36 other competitions: 28 of 48
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Borussia Dortmund 2-2 Werder Bremen: the model had Borussia Dortmund at 70%.
- Stade Nyonnais 2-1 FC Aarau: the model had FC Aarau at 58%.
- SC Kriens 1-1 FC WIL 1900: the model had SC Kriens at 57%.
Exact scorelines
- MC Alger 1-0 Témouchent: the exact score it named, with MC Alger at 58%.
- Palmeiras 1-0 Bahia: the exact score it named, with Palmeiras at 57%.
- De Graafschap 2-1 Jong Utrecht: the exact score it named, with De Graafschap at 45%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.