The model on 2 October: 7 out of 18
Of the 18 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Friday 2 October 2026, it called the result of 7 (39%). It named the exact scoreline 3 times. Across all 2,961 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- UEFA Nations League: 5 of 10
- Botola Pro: 0 of 3
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 0 of 1
- Major League Soccer: 1 of 1
- Premier Division: 1 of 1
- Primera División: 0 of 1
- Segunda División: 0 of 1
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Kazakhstan 1-2 Moldova: the model had Kazakhstan at 47%.
- France 1-1 Italy: the model had France at 42%.
- Ukraine 0-3 Northern Ireland: the model had Ukraine at 42%.
Exact scorelines
- Seattle Sounders 2-1 Sporting Kansas City: the exact score it named, with Seattle Sounders at 49%.
- Hungary 1-0 Georgia: the exact score it named, with Hungary at 45%.
- Dundalk 1-2 Bohemians: the exact score it named, with Bohemians at 40%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.
Every evening on Telegram
This summary is posted each evening on our Telegram channel, t.me/fulltimestats_com, with a link back to the full recap.