The model on 20 September: 58 out of 128
Of the 128 matches our model predicted before kick-off on Sunday 20 September 2026, it called the result of 58 (45%). It named the exact scoreline 14 times. Across all 2,800 matches it has predicted since 19 July, the rate is 47%.
By competition
- Major League Soccer: 4 of 10
- Serie A (Brazil): 2 of 6
- Allsvenskan: 2 of 5
- Eliteserien: 3 of 5
- La Liga: 3 of 5
- Liga Profesional Argentina: 3 of 5
- Primeira Liga: 1 of 5
- Segunda División: 2 of 5
- 26 other competitions: 38 of 82
The most confident misses
The predictions it was surest about and got wrong:
- Minnesota United FC 2-3 Los Angeles Galaxy: the model had Minnesota United FC at 53%.
- Inter Miami 2-2 San Diego: the model had Inter Miami at 52%.
- Gangwon FC 0-1 Jeju United FC: the model had Gangwon FC at 51%.
Exact scorelines
- Flamengo 2-1 RB Bragantino: the exact score it named, with Flamengo at 52%.
- Slavia Praha 2-1 Plzen: the exact score it named, with Slavia Praha at 52%.
- Ujpest 2-1 Zalaegerszegi TE: the exact score it named, with Ujpest at 49%.
How this is counted
A result counts as called when the outcome the model rated most likely (home win, draw or away win) is the one that happened. Every prediction here was published and logged before kick-off, and the log is public: the track record breaks it down by confidence, by competition and by club. How the probabilities are produced, including where the model is known to be wrong, is in the methodology.