Luxembourg
vs
Bulgaria
UEFA Nations League prediction
Our model says: Luxembourg 1–0 Bulgaria
The model makes it 35% Luxembourg, 30% draw, 35% Bulgaria — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Luxembourg 1.25, Bulgaria 1.25.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 46%, under 2.5: 54%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Luxembourg and Bulgaria are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Luxembourg are 2nd on 3 points from 2 games; Bulgaria are bottom on 1 point from 2 games — UEFA Nations League, League C.
- Luxembourg have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Iceland.
- Bulgaria are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Estonia.
- Last 6 meetings: Bulgaria 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 26 September 2026, ended Bulgaria 1–2 Luxembourg.
All Nations League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Luxembourg at 35% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
Luxembourg
- L0-3Iceland29 September 2026
- W2-1away to Bulgaria26 September 2026
Bulgaria
- D0-0Estonia29 September 2026
- L1-2Luxembourg26 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Luxembourg | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 4 | Bulgaria | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
- 26 September 2026Bulgaria 1–2 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
- 15 November 2024Luxembourg 0–1 BulgariaUEFA Nations League
- 12 October 2024Bulgaria 0–0 LuxembourgUEFA Nations League
- 20 November 2022Luxembourg 0–0 BulgariaFriendlies
- 10 October 2017Luxembourg 1–1 BulgariaWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
- 6 September 2016Bulgaria 4–3 LuxembourgWorld Cup - Qualification Europe
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Luxembourg carry a model rating of 6.75 against 6.79 for Bulgaria. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.25 goals for Luxembourg and 1.25 for Bulgaria. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Luxembourg rate 0.81 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bulgaria rate 1.00 and 1.14.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Luxembourg the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Luxembourg against 1.25 for Bulgaria. Luxembourg's attack/defence rating is 0.81/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/1.14 for Bulgaria.
Uncalibrated. National-team ratings are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking, because these groups never play each other and nothing inside the results can compare them. The constants behind that anchor are declared, not fitted — too few national-team matches have been settled to test them — so treat this prediction as the weakest kind we publish. How the model works.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent internationals, friendlies included, before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Luxembourg
- vs Estonia13 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 40%
- at Iceland16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 31%
Bulgaria
- vs Iceland13 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 36%
- at Estonia16 Nov · UEFA Nations Leaguewin 40%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.