Wycombe
vs
Notts County
League One prediction
Our model says: Wycombe 2–1 Notts County
The model makes it 42% Wycombe, 29% draw, 29% Notts County — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wycombe 1.66, Notts County 1.19.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Wycombe are 12th on 10 points from 8 games; Notts County are 20th on 7 points from 7 games — League One.
- Wycombe are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Reading.
- Notts County are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Reading.
- Last 6 meetings: Notts County 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 July 2024, ended Notts County 1–0 Wycombe.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wycombe vs Notts County
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Wycombe at 42% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wycombe vs Notts County
Wycombe
- D2-2Reading26 September 2026
- W1-0away to Wigan19 September 2026
- W3-2away to Leyton Orient12 September 2026
- D3-3Milton Keynes Dons5 September 2026
- L1-2Sheffield Wednesday1 September 2026
Notts County
- L0-2away to Reading19 September 2026
- L0-1Bradford12 September 2026
- D1-1away to Huddersfield5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Doncaster1 September 2026
- W2-1Burton Albion29 August 2026
What these results say
- Wycombe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wycombe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Wycombe had three goals or more.
- Notts County conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Notts County failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Notts County had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wycombe | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 10 |
| 20 | Notts County | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wycombe vs Notts County
- 13 July 2024Notts County 1–0 WycombeFriendlies Clubs
- 30 March 2018Notts County 0–0 WycombeLeague Two
- 19 August 2017Wycombe 2–4 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 25 March 2017Wycombe 0–1 Notts CountyLeague Two
- 10 December 2016Notts County 0–2 WycombeLeague Two
- 28 March 2016Notts County 0–0 WycombeLeague Two
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Wycombe carry a model rating of 6.3 against 6.23 for Notts County. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Wycombe and 1.19 for Notts County. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wycombe rate 0.65 in attack and 2.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Notts County rate 0.48 and 1.68.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wycombe a 1.5% chance of the title and Notts County 0.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wycombe the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Wycombe against 1.19 for Notts County. Wycombe's attack/defence rating is 0.65/2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.68 for Notts County.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wycombe at home · Notts County away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Wycombe 8, Notts County 7.
Notts County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Wycombe have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wycombe
- at Cambridge United20 Oct · League Onewin 31%
- at AFC Wimbledon24 Oct · League Onewin 38%
- vs Burton Albion31 Oct · League Onewin 41%
Notts County
- vs Sheffield Wednesday20 Oct · League Onewin 35%
- vs Stockport County24 Oct · League Onewin 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.