Wigan
vs
Mansfield Town
League One prediction
Our model says: Wigan 0–1 Mansfield Town
The model makes it 32% Wigan, 31% draw, 37% Mansfield Town — fair odds of 3.13, 3.23 and 2.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Wigan 1.09, Mansfield Town 1.26.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wigan vs Mansfield Town
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Mansfield Town at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wigan vs Mansfield Town
Wigan
- L0-1Wycombe19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday12 September 2026
- L0-4Stockport County5 September 2026
- W3-1Milton Keynes Dons2 September 2026
- L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon30 August 2026
Mansfield Town
- D2-2away to Burton Albion19 September 2026
- D0-0Huddersfield12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Bradford5 September 2026
- L0-5away to Reading2 September 2026
- W5-2Luton30 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
| 17 | Mansfield Town | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wigan vs Mansfield Town
- 11 April 2026Wigan 2–1 Mansfield TownLeague One
- 25 October 2025Mansfield Town 1–1 WiganLeague One
- 4 March 2025Mansfield Town 0–0 WiganLeague One
- 14 January 2025Mansfield Town 0–2 WiganFA Cup
- 22 October 2024Wigan 1–2 Mansfield TownLeague One
The two sides
Wigan carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.29 for Mansfield Town. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.09 goals for Wigan and 1.26 for Mansfield Town. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wigan rate 0.41 in attack and 1.79 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Mansfield Town rate 0.57 and 1.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Mansfield Town the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Wigan against 1.26 for Mansfield Town. Wigan's attack/defence rating is 0.41/1.79 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.74 for Mansfield Town.