West Ham
vs
West Brom
Championship prediction
Our model says: West Ham 1–0 West Brom
The model makes it 52% West Ham, 27% draw, 21% West Brom — fair odds of 1.92, 3.70 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: West Ham 1.64, West Brom 0.83.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to West Ham: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- West Ham are 2nd on 22 points from 11 games; West Brom are 5th on 20 points from 11 games — Championship.
- West Ham are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Swansea.
- West Brom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-2 win at home to Blackburn.
- Last 6 meetings: West Ham 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2021, ended West Brom 1–3 West Ham.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: West Ham vs West Brom
Has the model earned this number?
It puts West Ham at 52% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into West Ham vs West Brom
West Ham
- W1-0away to Swansea17 October 2026
- W6-0away to Lincoln14 October 2026
- D1-1QPR9 October 2026
- D2-2away to Millwall19 September 2026
- W6-0Wrexham11 September 2026
West Brom
- W3-2Blackburn17 October 2026
- W2-1away to Wrexham13 October 2026
- L0-1Birmingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wolves20 September 2026
- D1-1QPR12 September 2026
What these results say
- West Ham went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- West Ham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- West Brom conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | West Ham | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 30 | 12 | +18 | 22 |
| 5 | West Brom | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
West Ham
Chance to finish in the top four · 72% today
West Brom
Chance to finish in the top four · 12% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: West Ham vs West Brom
- 19 May 2021West Brom 1–3 West HamPremier League
- 19 January 2021West Ham 2–1 West BromPremier League
- 25 January 2020West Ham 0–1 West BromFA Cup
- 2 January 2018West Ham 2–1 West BromPremier League
- 16 September 2017West Brom 0–0 West HamPremier League
- 11 February 2017West Ham 2–2 West BromPremier League
Leading scorers: West Ham and West Brom
West Ham
GoalsAssists
- J. Bowen65
- K. Mavropanos50
West Brom
GoalsAssists
- J. Morgan33
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
West Ham carry a model rating of 6.77 against 6.56 for West Brom. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.64 goals for West Ham and 0.83 for West Brom. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
West Ham rate 0.92 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; West Brom rate 0.65 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives West Ham a 30.5% chance of the title and West Brom 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives West Ham the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.64 expected goals for West Ham against 0.83 for West Brom. West Ham's attack/defence rating is 0.92/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.18 for West Brom.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
West Ham at home · West Brom away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
West HamWest Brom
West Ham are 2nd after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 19th so far); West Brom are 4th after 11 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: West Ham 11, West Brom 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
West Ham
- at Cardiff4 Nov · Championshipwin 42%
- at Blackburn7 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
- vs Preston21 Nov · Championshipwin 69%
- at Portsmouth24 Nov · Championshipwin 43%
West Brom
- vs Southampton3 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs Millwall7 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
- at Swansea21 Nov · Championshipwin 24%
- at Bolton25 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.