Norwich
vs
Portsmouth
Championship prediction
Our model says: Norwich 2–1 Portsmouth
The model makes it 46% Norwich, 27% draw, 27% Portsmouth — fair odds of 2.17, 3.70 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Norwich 1.89, Portsmouth 1.19.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Norwich are 17th on 9 points from 8 games; Portsmouth are 19th on 8 points from 7 games — Championship.
- Norwich have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Bolton.
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Blackburn.
- Last 5 meetings: Portsmouth 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Norwich 1–1 Portsmouth.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Norwich vs Portsmouth
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Norwich at 46% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Norwich vs Portsmouth
Norwich
- L3-4Bolton20 September 2026
- L3-4away to Middlesbrough12 September 2026
- W2-1Birmingham9 September 2026
- W3-1away to Sheffield Utd5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Stoke City1 September 2026
Portsmouth
- D2-2Blackburn19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Charlton12 September 2026
- W2-0Cardiff5 September 2026
- L0-2Derby1 September 2026
- L1-2away to Bristol City29 August 2026
What these results say
- Norwich conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Norwich scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Norwich had three goals or more.
- Portsmouth failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Norwich vs Portsmouth
- 3 April 2026Norwich 1–1 PortsmouthChampionship
- 16 August 2025Portsmouth 1–2 NorwichChampionship
- 18 April 2025Norwich 3–5 PortsmouthChampionship
- 10 December 2024Portsmouth 0–0 NorwichChampionship
- 5 January 2019Norwich 0–1 PortsmouthFA Cup
Leading scorers: Norwich and Portsmouth
Norwich
- M. Touré5 goals
Portsmouth
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Norwich carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.47 for Portsmouth. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Norwich and 1.19 for Portsmouth. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Norwich rate 0.87 in attack and 1.50 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Portsmouth rate 0.67 and 1.44.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Norwich a 1.6% chance of the title and Portsmouth 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Norwich the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Norwich against 1.19 for Portsmouth. Norwich's attack/defence rating is 0.87/1.5 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.44 for Portsmouth.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Norwich at home · Portsmouth away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Norwich 8, Portsmouth 7.
Portsmouth score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Norwich have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Norwich
- at Charlton24 Oct · Championshipwin 37%
- vs Watford31 Oct · Championshipwin 47%
- at Derby3 Nov · Championshipwin 35%
Portsmouth
- at Wolves20 Oct · Championshipwin 24%
- vs Millwall24 Oct · Championshipwin 34%
- at Burnley31 Oct · Championshipwin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.