Southampton
vs
Bolton
Championship prediction
Our model says: Southampton 2–1 Bolton
The model makes it 56% Southampton, 24% draw, 20% Bolton — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Southampton 2.53, Bolton 1.05.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Southampton are 13th on 10 points from 8 games; Bolton are 15th on 10 points from 8 games — Championship.
- Southampton have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Wrexham.
- Bolton have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 4-3 win away to Norwich.
All Championship predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Southampton vs Bolton
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 56% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Southampton vs Bolton
Southampton
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
- W3-1Swansea8 September 2026
- D1-1away to Lincoln5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Birmingham1 September 2026
Bolton
- W4-3away to Norwich20 September 2026
- W1-0Cardiff12 September 2026
- L2-3West Ham8 September 2026
- L0-4away to Millwall5 September 2026
- L2-3away to Sheffield Utd1 September 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Southampton conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Southampton.
- Bolton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bolton conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Bolton had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Leading scorers: Southampton and Bolton
Southampton
- C. Larin7 goals
- F. Azaz3 goals4 assists
Bolton
- T. Gale3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Southampton carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.47 for Bolton. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.53 goals for Southampton and 1.05 for Bolton. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Southampton rate 1.05 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bolton rate 0.74 and 1.60.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Southampton a 24.3% chance of the title and Bolton 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.53 expected goals for Southampton against 1.05 for Bolton. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 1.05/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.6 for Bolton.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Southampton at home · Bolton away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Southampton 8, Bolton 8.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Bolton have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Southampton
- at West Ham24 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs QPR31 Oct · Championshipwin 52%
- at West Brom3 Nov · Championshipwin 39%
Bolton
- vs Middlesbrough23 Oct · Championshipwin 32%
- vs Bristol City31 Oct · Championshipwin 38%
- at Charlton3 Nov · Championshipwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.