Waterford
vs
Drogheda United
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Waterford 1–0 Drogheda United
The model makes it 47% Waterford, 27% draw, 26% Drogheda United — fair odds of 2.13, 3.70 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Waterford 1.66, Drogheda United 1.09.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Waterford are 8th on 34 points from 32 games; Drogheda United are 9th on 34 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- Waterford are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Shamrock Rovers.
- Drogheda United have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Shamrock Rovers.
- Last 6 meetings: Waterford 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 29 May 2026, ended Drogheda United 3–3 Waterford.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Waterford vs Drogheda United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Waterford at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Waterford vs Drogheda United
Waterford
- L2-3away to Shamrock Rovers18 September 2026
- D2-2Derry City14 September 2026
- D1-1Dundalk11 September 2026
- W2-0away to St Patrick's Athletic28 August 2026
- D0-0away to Sligo Rovers21 August 2026
Drogheda United
- L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers8 October 2026
- L1-2away to Bohemians18 September 2026
- W2-1away to Shelbourne14 September 2026
- W2-0Sligo Rovers11 September 2026
- L2-3Dundalk28 August 2026
What these results say
- Waterford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Waterford scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Drogheda United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Drogheda United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Drogheda United had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Waterford | 32 | 7 | 13 | 12 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 34 |
| 9 | Drogheda United | 33 | 8 | 10 | 15 | 39 | 54 | -15 | 34 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Waterford
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 71% today
Drogheda United
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 93% today
From our Premier Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Waterford vs Drogheda United
- 29 May 2026Drogheda United 3–3 WaterfordPremier Division
- 18 May 2026Waterford 2–1 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 13 February 2026Drogheda United 2–0 WaterfordPremier Division
- 5 October 2025Waterford 2–0 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
- 8 August 2025Drogheda United 0–0 WaterfordPremier Division
- 30 May 2025Waterford 2–2 Drogheda UnitedPremier Division
Leading scorers: Waterford and Drogheda United
Waterford
GoalsAssists
- T. Lonergan144
- P. Amond91
Drogheda United
GoalsAssists
- M. Doyle80
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Waterford carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.11 for Drogheda United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.66 goals for Waterford and 1.09 for Drogheda United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Waterford rate 0.56 in attack and 2.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Drogheda United rate 0.46 and 2.04.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Waterford the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Waterford against 1.09 for Drogheda United. Waterford's attack/defence rating is 0.56/2.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.04 for Drogheda United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Waterford at home · Drogheda United away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Waterford 32, Drogheda United 33.
Waterford score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Drogheda United have let in 8 there.
Drogheda United score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Waterford have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Waterford
- at Shelbourne30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 29%
Drogheda United
- vs Galway United30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.