Derry City
vs
Dundalk
Premier Division prediction
Our model says: Derry City 2–1 Dundalk
The model makes it 52% Derry City, 25% draw, 23% Dundalk — fair odds of 1.92, 4.00 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Derry City 1.98, Dundalk 1.14.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Derry City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Derry City are 5th on 41 points from 32 games; Dundalk are 6th on 41 points from 33 games — Premier Division.
- Derry City are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Galway United.
- Dundalk are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Bohemians.
- Last 6 meetings: Derry City 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 6 September 2026, ended Derry City 4–2 Dundalk.
More League of Ireland Premier Division predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Derry City vs Dundalk
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Derry City at 52% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Derry City vs Dundalk
Derry City
- W1-0Galway United18 September 2026
- D2-2away to Waterford14 September 2026
- W1-0away to Shelbourne11 September 2026
- D3-3Shamrock Rovers30 August 2026
- L3-5away to Bohemians21 August 2026
Dundalk
- L1-2Bohemians2 October 2026
- L2-3Shelbourne18 September 2026
- L0-4St Patrick's Athletic14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Waterford11 September 2026
- W3-2away to Drogheda United28 August 2026
What these results say
- Derry City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dundalk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Derry City | 32 | 9 | 14 | 9 | 45 | 42 | +3 | 41 |
| 6 | Dundalk | 33 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Derry City
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
Dundalk
Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today
From our Premier Division season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Derry City vs Dundalk
- 6 September 2026Derry City 4–2 DundalkFAI Cup
- 29 May 2026Dundalk 2–1 Derry CityPremier Division
- 10 April 2026Dundalk 2–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 13 February 2026Derry City 2–2 DundalkPremier Division
- 18 October 2024Dundalk 0–2 Derry CityPremier Division
- 9 August 2024Derry City 1–1 DundalkPremier Division
Leading scorers: Derry City and Dundalk
Derry City
GoalsAssists
- M. Duffy105
- J. Clarke63
Dundalk
GoalsAssists
- D. Horgan1110
- G. Arubi73
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Derry City carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.15 for Dundalk. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Derry City and 1.14 for Dundalk. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Derry City rate 0.59 in attack and 1.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dundalk rate 0.56 and 2.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Derry City the highest probability at 52%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Derry City against 1.14 for Dundalk. Derry City's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/2.3 for Dundalk.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Derry City at home · Dundalk away
League matches only, Premier Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier Division matches this season: Derry City 32, Dundalk 33.
Derry City score most often in the 76–90 minute window (13 goals); Dundalk have let in 13 there.
Dundalk score most often in the 76–90 minute window (17 goals); Derry City have let in 10 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Derry City
- at Sligo Rovers30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 50%
Dundalk
- vs Shamrock Rovers30 Oct · Premier Divisionwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.