Vitória SC
vs
Maritimo
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Vitória SC 1–0 Maritimo
The model makes it 39% Vitória SC, 29% draw, 32% Maritimo — fair odds of 2.56, 3.45 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vitória SC 1.31, Maritimo 1.15.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Vitória SC are 15th on 5 points from 8 games; Maritimo are 11th on 8 points from 8 games — Primeira Liga.
- Vitória SC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Benfica.
- Maritimo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Porto.
- Last 6 meetings: Vitória SC 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 April 2023, ended Maritimo 1–2 Vitória SC.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitória SC vs Maritimo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vitória SC at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vitória SC vs Maritimo
Vitória SC
- L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to SC Braga31 August 2026
Maritimo
- L1-2FC Porto10 October 2026
- D1-1away to GIL Vicente19 September 2026
- L1-3away to Moreirense14 September 2026
- L0-3Benfica5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Arouca29 August 2026
What these results say
- Vitória SC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vitória SC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vitória SC had two goals or fewer.
- Maritimo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Vitória SC | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 5 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vitória SC
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
Maritimo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our Primeira Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vitória SC vs Maritimo
- 29 April 2023Maritimo 1–2 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 13 November 2022Vitória SC 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 13 March 2022Maritimo 0–1 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 22 October 2021Vitória SC 2–1 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
- 16 May 2021Maritimo 0–0 Vitória SCPrimeira Liga
- 31 January 2021Vitória SC 1–0 MaritimoPrimeira Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vitória SC carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.65 for Maritimo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.31 goals for Vitória SC and 1.15 for Maritimo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitória SC rate 0.68 in attack and 1.07 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Maritimo rate 0.85 and 1.27.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Maritimo, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vitória SC the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Vitória SC against 1.15 for Maritimo. Vitória SC's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.27 for Maritimo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vitória SC at home · Maritimo away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Vitória SC 8, Maritimo 8.
Vitória SC score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Maritimo have let in 1 there.
Maritimo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Vitória SC have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Vitória SC
- at GIL Vicente2 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 25%
- vs FC Porto8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 13%
- vs Estrela28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 37%
- at Estoril6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 31%
- vs Alverca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 33%
Maritimo
- at Sporting CP27 Oct · Taça da Ligawin 8%
- vs Santa Clara1 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 30%
- at Estoril8 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 33%
- vs Nacional27 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- at Sporting CP6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 10%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.