Independiente del Valle
vs
Aucas
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Independiente del Valle 2–1 Aucas
The model makes it 55% Independiente del Valle, 24% draw, 21% Aucas — fair odds of 1.82, 4.17 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Independiente del Valle 2.50, Aucas 1.08.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 69%, under 2.5: 31%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Independiente del Valle are top on 74 points from 30 games; Aucas are 4th on 50 points from 31 games — Liga Pro, Championship Group.
- Independiente del Valle have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-2 win away to Libertad.
- Aucas are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Macara.
- Last 6 meetings: Independiente del Valle 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 July 2026, ended Aucas 0–3 Independiente del Valle.
All Ecuador LigaPro predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Independiente del Valle at 55% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
Independiente del Valle
- W3-2away to Libertad13 September 2026
- W3-1Macara5 September 2026
- L1-2away to Barcelona SC3 September 2026
- D2-2Universidad Catolica Quito29 August 2026
- W3-2away to Leones del Norte22 August 2026
Aucas
- L1-2Macara19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Manta FC12 September 2026
- D1-1Barcelona SC7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Universidad Catolica Quito3 September 2026
- W1-0Libertad30 August 2026
What these results say
- Independiente del Valle scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Independiente del Valle conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Independiente del Valle had three goals or more.
- Aucas failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aucas scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Aucas had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 30 | 24 | 2 | 4 | 73 | 33 | +40 | 74 |
| 4 | Aucas | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 34 | 30 | +4 | 50 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Independiente del Valle vs Aucas
- 16 July 2026Aucas 0–3 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 14 March 2026Independiente del Valle 2–2 AucasLiga Pro
- 19 July 2025Independiente del Valle 2–1 AucasLiga Pro
- 28 March 2025Aucas 1–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 1 September 2024Aucas 0–2 Independiente del ValleLiga Pro
- 24 March 2024Independiente del Valle 1–1 AucasLiga Pro
Leading scorers: Independiente del Valle and Aucas
Independiente del Valle
- D. Reasco9 goals4 assists
- C. González9 goals
- M. Perelló8 goals3 assists
Aucas
- A. Preciado6 goals3 assists
- B. Miranda6 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Independiente del Valle carry a model rating of 6.8 against 6.51 for Aucas. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.50 goals for Independiente del Valle and 1.08 for Aucas. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Independiente del Valle rate 1.18 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aucas rate 0.65 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Independiente del Valle a 100% chance of the title and Aucas 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Independiente del Valle the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.50 expected goals for Independiente del Valle against 1.08 for Aucas. Independiente del Valle's attack/defence rating is 1.18/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.3 for Aucas.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Independiente del Valle at home · Aucas away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Independiente del Valle 30, Aucas 31.
Independiente del Valle score most often in the 76–90 minute window (18 goals); Aucas have let in 9 there.
Aucas score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Independiente del Valle have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Independiente del Valle
- at Macara18 Oct · Liga Prowin 38%
- vs Universidad Catolica Quito25 Oct · Liga Prowin 49%
- vs LDU de Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 50%
- at Aucas8 Nov · Liga Prowin 41%
Aucas
- vs LDU de Quito18 Oct · Liga Prowin 36%
- vs Barcelona SC25 Oct · Liga Prowin 35%
- at Universidad Catolica Quito1 Nov · Liga Prowin 25%
- vs Independiente del Valle8 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- at LDU de Quito22 Nov · Liga Prowin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.