FC Seoul
vs
Gangwon FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: FC Seoul 1–0 Gangwon FC
The model makes it 47% FC Seoul, 28% draw, 25% Gangwon FC — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: FC Seoul 1.52, Gangwon FC 0.97.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to FC Seoul: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Seoul are top on 65 points from 31 games; Gangwon FC are 3rd on 46 points from 31 games — K League 1.
- FC Seoul have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Jeju United FC.
- Gangwon FC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Bucheon FC 1995.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Seoul 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 July 2026, ended FC Seoul 0–0 Gangwon FC.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Seoul at 47% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC
FC Seoul
- W2-1Jeju United FC10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Pohang Steelers20 September 2026
- W2-1away to Jeonbuk Motors12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Ulsan Hyundai FC8 September 2026
- W1-0Incheon United5 September 2026
Gangwon FC
- W2-0Bucheon FC 19959 October 2026
- D0-0Incheon United27 September 2026
- L0-1Jeju United FC20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC13 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors9 September 2026
What these results say
- FC Seoul scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Seoul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gangwon FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gangwon FC had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 31 | 20 | 5 | 6 | 58 | 26 | +32 | 65 |
| 3 | Gangwon FC | 31 | 11 | 13 | 7 | 38 | 28 | +10 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gangwon FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 62% today
From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: FC Seoul vs Gangwon FC
- 12 July 2026FC Seoul 0–0 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 25 April 2026Gangwon FC 1–2 FC SeoulK League 1
- 26 October 2025FC Seoul 4–2 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 13 September 2025Gangwon FC 3–2 FC SeoulK League 1
- 17 June 2025FC Seoul 1–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 15 March 2025Gangwon FC 0–1 FC SeoulK League 1
Leading scorers: FC Seoul and Gangwon FC
FC Seoul
GoalsAssists
- P. Klimala60
Gangwon FC
GoalsAssists
- A. Halaihal40
- Mo Jae-Hyeon32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
FC Seoul carry a model rating of 6.7 against 6.55 for Gangwon FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for FC Seoul and 0.97 for Gangwon FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Seoul rate 0.91 in attack and 1.22 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gangwon FC rate 0.63 and 1.18.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Seoul a 100% chance of the title and Gangwon FC 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Seoul the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Seoul against 0.97 for Gangwon FC. FC Seoul's attack/defence rating is 0.91/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.18 for Gangwon FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Seoul at home · Gangwon FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: FC Seoul 31, Gangwon FC 31.
FC Seoul score most often in the 46–60 minute window (18 goals); Gangwon FC have let in 4 there.
Gangwon FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); FC Seoul have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.