Incheon United
vs
Jeju United FC
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Incheon United 1–0 Jeju United FC
The model makes it 38% Incheon United, 31% draw, 31% Jeju United FC — fair odds of 2.63, 3.23 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Incheon United 1.14, Jeju United FC 0.99.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Incheon United are 7th on 42 points from 31 games; Jeju United FC are 4th on 46 points from 31 games — K League 1.
- Incheon United are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Pohang Steelers.
- Jeju United FC have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Seoul.
- Last 6 meetings: Jeju United FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Jeju United FC 3–3 Incheon United.
More K League 1 predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Incheon United at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Incheon United vs Jeju United FC
Incheon United
- W3-0Pohang Steelers9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC27 September 2026
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
Jeju United FC
- L1-2away to FC Seoul10 October 2026
- W1-0away to Gangwon FC20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bucheon FC 199512 September 2026
- W1-0away to Gwangju FC9 September 2026
- D0-0Ulsan Hyundai FC5 September 2026
What these results say
- Incheon United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Jeju United FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Incheon United | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 33 | +6 | 42 |
| 4 | Jeju United FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | 36 | 31 | +5 | 46 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Incheon United
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
Jeju United FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 56% today
From our K League 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Incheon United vs Jeju United FC
- 2 August 2026Jeju United FC 3–3 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 25 April 2026Incheon United 1–0 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 19 October 2024Incheon United 1–2 Jeju United FCK League 1
- 10 August 2024Jeju United FC 0–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 26 June 2024Jeju United FC 1–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 6 April 2024Incheon United 0–1 Jeju United FCK League 1
Leading scorers: Incheon United and Jeju United FC
Incheon United
GoalsAssists
- S. Mugoša100
- M. Ferrier50
Jeju United FC
GoalsAssists
- Lee Kun-Hee41
- Matheus Aiás32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Incheon United carry a model rating of 6.55 against 6.53 for Jeju United FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.14 goals for Incheon United and 0.99 for Jeju United FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Incheon United rate 0.65 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Jeju United FC rate 0.65 and 1.24.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Jeju United FC, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Incheon United the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Incheon United against 0.99 for Jeju United FC. Incheon United's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.24 for Jeju United FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Incheon United at home · Jeju United FC away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Incheon United 31, Jeju United FC 31.
Incheon United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (16 goals); Jeju United FC have let in 6 there.
Jeju United FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Incheon United have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.