Regular Season - 33 · 24 October 2026, 05:00 UTC

Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC K League 1 prediction

Bucheon Stadium, Bucheon

Our model says: Bucheon FC 1995 2–1 Gwangju FC

The model makes it 48% Bucheon FC 1995, 26% draw, 26% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

Expected goals: Bucheon FC 1995 1.77, Gwangju FC 1.18.

Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.

Model confidence: Medium.

Edge to Bucheon FC 1995: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Bucheon FC 1995 are 11th on 32 points from 31 games; Gwangju FC are bottom on 18 points from 31 games — K League 1.
  • Bucheon FC 1995 have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Gangwon FC.
  • Gwangju FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 4-3 win at home to Ulsan Hyundai FC.
  • Last 6 meetings: Gwangju FC 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended Bucheon FC 1995 0–0 Gwangju FC.

More K League 1 predictions

All K League 1 predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC

58%
Both teams to score
57%
Over 2.5 goals
43%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Bucheon FC 1995 win Draw Gwangju FC win
  1. 1–111%
  2. 2–110%
  3. 1–09%
  4. 2–08%
  5. 1–26%
  6. 0–06%
  7. 2–26%

Scores read Bucheon FC 1995 first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 44%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Bucheon FC 1995 at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC

Bucheon FC 1995

  • L0-2away to Gangwon FC9 October 2026
  • L0-2Gimcheon Sangmu FC19 September 2026
  • D2-2Jeju United FC12 September 2026
  • L1-2away to Incheon United8 September 2026
  • L0-5Daejeon Citizen5 September 2026

Gwangju FC

  • W4-3Ulsan Hyundai FC11 October 2026
  • D2-2away to Jeonbuk Motors20 September 2026
  • D1-1FC Anyang13 September 2026
  • L0-1Jeju United FC9 September 2026
  • D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC6 September 2026

What these results say

  • Bucheon FC 1995 did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Bucheon FC 1995 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gwangju FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Gwangju FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Gwangju FC scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

K League 1 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
11Bucheon FC 199531711133142-1132
12Gwangju FC31212172566-4118

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Bucheon FC 1995 vs Gwangju FC

  • 8 August 2026Bucheon FC 1995 0–0 Gwangju FCK League 1
  • 11 April 2026Gwangju FC 0–1 Bucheon FC 1995K League 1
  • 27 August 2025Bucheon FC 1995 1–2 Gwangju FCFA Cup
  • 20 August 2025Gwangju FC 2–0 Bucheon FC 1995FA Cup
  • 19 June 2024Bucheon FC 1995 2–3 Gwangju FCFA Cup
  • 30 August 2022Bucheon FC 1995 2–1 Gwangju FCK League 2

Leading scorers: Bucheon FC 1995 and Gwangju FC

Bucheon FC 1995

GoalsAssists

  • Jefferson Galego41

Gwangju FC

GoalsAssists

  • J. Iredale40

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Bucheon FC 1995 carry a model rating of 6.36 against 6.21 for Gwangju FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.77 goals for Bucheon FC 1995 and 1.18 for Gwangju FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Bucheon FC 1995 rate 0.61 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gwangju FC rate 0.57 and 2.05.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Bucheon FC 1995 the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Bucheon FC 1995 against 1.18 for Gwangju FC. Bucheon FC 1995's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/2.05 for Gwangju FC.

Season stats

Bucheon FC 1995Gwangju FC
31Matches31
7W 11D 13LRecord2W 12D 17L
31 1.0 per gameGoals scored25 0.8 per game
42 1.4 per gameGoals conceded66 2.1 per game
9 of 31Clean sheets4 of 31
13 of 31Failed to score16 of 31
2 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3
67 2.2 per gameYellow cards65 2.1 per game
3Red cards3
3-4-3 24×Usual shape4-4-2 24×

Bucheon FC 1995 at home · Gwangju FC away

17Played14
3W 7D 7LRecord0W 7D 7L
18–26Goals for – against9–32
5 of 17Clean sheets2 of 14

League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All K League 1 matches this season: Bucheon FC 1995 31, Gwangju FC 31.

Bucheon FC 1995 scored 333685
Gwangju FC conceded 7101116616

Bucheon FC 1995 score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Gwangju FC have let in 6 there.

Gwangju FC scored 415455
Bucheon FC 1995 conceded 37108611

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.