Gangwon FC
vs
Incheon United
K League 1 prediction
Our model says: Gangwon FC 1–0 Incheon United
The model makes it 36% Gangwon FC, 32% draw, 32% Incheon United — fair odds of 2.78, 3.13 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 1.12, Incheon United 0.96.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Gangwon FC are 5th on 43 points from 30 games; Incheon United are 8th on 39 points from 30 games — K League 1.
- Gangwon FC are without a win in 4, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Incheon United.
- Incheon United are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Gangwon FC.
- Last 6 meetings: Gangwon FC 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 27 September 2026, ended Gangwon FC 0–0 Incheon United.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Gangwon FC vs Incheon United
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gangwon FC at 36% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Gangwon FC vs Incheon United
Gangwon FC
- D0-0Incheon United27 September 2026
- L0-1Jeju United FC20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Gimcheon Sangmu FC13 September 2026
- D1-1Jeonbuk Motors9 September 2026
- W3-0away to FC Anyang6 September 2026
Incheon United
- D0-0away to Gangwon FC27 September 2026
- D1-1Daejeon Citizen20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Ulsan Hyundai FC12 September 2026
- W2-1Bucheon FC 19958 September 2026
- L0-1away to FC Seoul5 September 2026
What these results say
- Gangwon FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Incheon United conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Gangwon FC | 30 | 10 | 13 | 7 | 36 | 28 | +8 | 43 |
| 8 | Incheon United | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 33 | +3 | 39 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Gangwon FC vs Incheon United
- 27 September 2026Gangwon FC 0–0 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 2 May 2026Incheon United 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 6 October 2024Incheon United 1–3 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 30 June 2024Incheon United 0–1 Gangwon FCK League 1
- 21 April 2024Gangwon FC 4–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
- 24 September 2023Gangwon FC 1–1 Incheon UnitedK League 1
Leading scorers: Gangwon FC and Incheon United
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal4 goals
- Mo Jae-Hyeon3 goals2 assists
Incheon United
- S. Mugoša9 goals
- M. Ferrier5 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.5 for Incheon United. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.12 goals for Gangwon FC and 0.96 for Incheon United. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gangwon FC rate 0.63 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Incheon United rate 0.62 and 1.26.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 0.96 for Incheon United. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.26 for Incheon United.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Gangwon FC at home · Incheon United away
League matches only, K League 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All K League 1 matches this season: Gangwon FC 30, Incheon United 30.
Gangwon FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Incheon United have let in 8 there.
Incheon United score most often in the 31–45 minute window (14 goals); Gangwon FC have let in 8 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
Gangwon FC
- at FC Seoul24 Oct · K League 1win 27%
Incheon United
- vs Jeju United FC24 Oct · K League 1win 34%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.