Toulouse
vs
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Toulouse 2–0 Estac Troyes
The model makes it 61% Toulouse, 22% draw, 17% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 1.64, 4.55 and 5.88. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Toulouse 2.33, Estac Troyes 0.99.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Toulouse are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Toulouse are 15th on 6 points from 6 games; Estac Troyes are 17th on 4 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Toulouse are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Monaco.
- Estac Troyes are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Marseille.
- Last 6 meetings: Toulouse 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 February 2023, ended Toulouse 4–1 Estac Troyes.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Toulouse at 61% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
Toulouse
- D2-2away to Monaco10 October 2026
- W3-2Le Havre19 September 2026
- D2-2away to Lorient12 September 2026
- L0-1Lille3 September 2026
- D2-2away to Stade Brestois 2929 August 2026
Estac Troyes
- L0-2Marseille11 October 2026
- L0-2away to Angers19 September 2026
- L0-2away to Lille13 September 2026
- L2-6Strasbourg6 September 2026
- W2-1away to Lorient29 August 2026
What these results say
- Toulouse conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Toulouse scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Estac Troyes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Toulouse
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 10% today
Estac Troyes
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 85% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Toulouse vs Estac Troyes
- 1 February 2023Toulouse 4–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 14 August 2022Estac Troyes 0–3 ToulouseLigue 1
- 9 July 2022Toulouse 6–1 Estac TroyesFriendlies Clubs
- 6 February 2021Estac Troyes 1–1 ToulouseLigue 2
- 3 October 2020Toulouse 0–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 27 January 2018Toulouse 1–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
Leading scorers: Toulouse and Estac Troyes
Toulouse
GoalsAssists
- C. Tengstedt41
- T. Jørgensen21
Estac Troyes
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Toulouse carry a model rating of 6.78 against 6.46 for Estac Troyes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.33 goals for Toulouse and 0.99 for Estac Troyes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Toulouse rate 1.00 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estac Troyes rate 0.63 and 1.38.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Toulouse a 0.1% chance of the title and Estac Troyes 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Toulouse the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Toulouse against 0.99 for Estac Troyes. Toulouse's attack/defence rating is 1/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.63/1.38 for Estac Troyes.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Toulouse at home · Estac Troyes away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
ToulouseEstac Troyes
Toulouse are 13th after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 12th and 17th so far); Estac Troyes are 17th after 6 (between 2nd and 17th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Toulouse 6, Estac Troyes 6.
Toulouse score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Estac Troyes have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Toulouse
- at Marseille1 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
- vs Strasbourg6 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
- at Lens21 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- vs Rennes29 Nov · Ligue 1win 40%
Estac Troyes
- vs Le Mans31 Oct · Ligue 1win 28%
- at Paris Saint Germain7 Nov · Ligue 1win 6%
- vs Le Havre20 Nov · Ligue 1win 31%
- at Nice28 Nov · Ligue 1win 22%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.