Teplice
vs
FK Jablonec
Czech Liga prediction
The model makes it 46% Teplice, 25% draw, 29% FK Jablonec — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Teplice 1.74, FK Jablonec 1.33.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Teplice
- L1-4away to Sparta Praha15 August 2026
- D5-5Plzen8 August 2026
- W1-0away to Slovan Liberec1 August 2026
- W3-1Bohemians 190525 July 2026
FK Jablonec
- W1-0Slovácko9 August 2026
- W2-0away to Pardubice2 August 2026
- W2-1Sigma Olomouc26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Teplice | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 2 | FK Jablonec | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Teplice
- L. Mareček2 goals1 assists
- M. Pulkrab2 goals
FK Jablonec
- M. Cedidla2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Teplice carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.54 for FK Jablonec. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Teplice W-W-D-L; FK Jablonec W-W-W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Teplice and 1.33 for FK Jablonec. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Teplice rate 0.73 in attack and 1.42 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FK Jablonec rate 0.67 and 1.26.
That points to 59% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FK Jablonec, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Teplice the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Teplice against 1.33 for FK Jablonec. Teplice's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.42 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.26 for FK Jablonec.