Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha Czech Liga prediction & result
Final score: Sparta Praha 0-3 Slavia Praha.
Before kick-off the model made it 36% Sparta Praha, 28% draw, 36% Slavia Praha — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model got this one wrong.
Published · updated
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sparta Praha at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 44J. SurovcikG
- 2M. SuchomelD
- 6T. GuddalD
- 22L. Mbe SohD
- 11M. RynesD
- 28R. MacekM
- 5S. EnemeM
- 17J. MercadoM
- 10A. KarabecM
- 7J. AlcocerM
- 14J. BrunesF
- 47K. HegyiG
- 19A. SevinskyD
- 30J. ZelenyD
- 25K. HoeverD
- 15V. VitalyosD
- 31M. JurasekM
- 26P. VydraM
- 18A. IrvingM
- 38H. SochurekM
- 35J. MarkovicG
- 27T. VlcekD
- 4D. ZimaD
- 42M. KonecnyD
- 2S. ChaloupekD
- 30W. NowakM
- 23M. SadilekM
- 17L. ProvodM
- 20E. AyaosiF
- 18A. OuandaF
- 10D. SturmF
- 36J. StanekG
- 14S. IsifeD
- 33D. HalinskyD
- 6A. N'GuessanD
- 8O. KubiakD
- 16D. MosesM
- 22T. DiakiteM
- 32P. KacorM
- 26I. SchranzF
Form going into Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha
Sparta Praha
- W4-0away to Artis22 August 2026
Slavia Praha
- D2-2Bohemians 190522 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Sparta Praha | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 15 |
| 1 | Slavia Praha | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 6 | +19 | 23 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sparta Praha vs Slavia Praha
- 9 May 2026Slavia Praha 0–3 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 8 March 2026Slavia Praha 3–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 5 October 2025Sparta Praha 1–1 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 10 May 2025Slavia Praha 2–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
- 8 March 2025Sparta Praha 2–0 Slavia PrahaCzech Liga
- 6 October 2024Slavia Praha 2–1 Sparta PrahaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Sparta Praha and Slavia Praha
Sparta Praha
- J. Mercado4 goals1 assist
- J. Alcócer4 goals1 assist
Slavia Praha
- W. Nowak5 goals1 assist
- M. Chytil4 goals
- T. Chorý4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.