Swansea
vs
Blackburn
Championship prediction
Our model says: Swansea 1–0 Blackburn
The model makes it 48% Swansea, 29% draw, 23% Blackburn — fair odds of 2.08, 3.45 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Swansea 1.44, Blackburn 0.84.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 40%, under 2.5: 60%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Swansea: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Swansea are top on 23 points from 11 games; Blackburn are 10th on 15 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Swansea have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to West Ham.
- Blackburn have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to West Brom.
- Last 6 meetings: Swansea 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 January 2026, ended Swansea 3–1 Blackburn.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Swansea vs Blackburn
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Swansea at 48% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Swansea vs Blackburn
Swansea
- L0-1West Ham17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Millwall13 October 2026
- W2-1Norwich10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Lincoln19 September 2026
- W3-1Burnley12 September 2026
Blackburn
- L2-3away to West Brom17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bristol City13 October 2026
- W2-1Cardiff10 October 2026
- D2-2away to Portsmouth19 September 2026
- W3-1Millwall12 September 2026
What these results say
- Swansea won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Swansea conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Blackburn conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Blackburn had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 23 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Swansea
Chance to finish in the top four · 48% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Swansea vs Blackburn
- 20 January 2026Swansea 3–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 30 September 2025Blackburn 1–2 SwanseaChampionship
- 22 February 2025Swansea 3–0 BlackburnChampionship
- 19 October 2024Blackburn 1–0 SwanseaChampionship
- 2 March 2024Swansea 2–1 BlackburnChampionship
- 28 October 2023Blackburn 0–1 SwanseaChampionship
Leading scorers: Swansea and Blackburn
Swansea
GoalsAssists
- A. Idah41
Blackburn
GoalsAssists
- O. Afolayan42
- A. Guðjohnsen41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Swansea carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.52 for Blackburn. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.44 goals for Swansea and 0.84 for Blackburn. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Swansea rate 0.73 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Blackburn rate 0.67 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Swansea a 11.1% chance of the title and Blackburn 0.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Swansea the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Swansea against 0.84 for Blackburn. Swansea's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.31 for Blackburn.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Swansea at home · Blackburn away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SwanseaBlackburn
Swansea are 1st after 11 Championship matches (between 1st and 6th so far); Blackburn are 10th after 11 (between 1st and 16th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Swansea 11, Blackburn 11.
Swansea score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Blackburn have let in 4 there.
Blackburn score most often in the 46–60 minute window (6 goals); Swansea have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Swansea
- at Portsmouth3 Nov · Championshipwin 37%
- at Birmingham7 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- vs West Brom21 Nov · Championshipwin 45%
- at Middlesbrough24 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Blackburn
- vs Stoke City3 Nov · Championshipwin 40%
- vs West Ham7 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
- at Burnley22 Nov · Championshipwin 22%
- at Watford25 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.