Stevenage
vs
Sheffield Wednesday
League One postponed match
This fixture has been postponed and is not being played on this date. A replayed tie is listed by our data provider as a new fixture, with its own page, so the call below has no result to be judged against.
Before the match was called off the model made it 37% Stevenage, 32% draw, 31% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 2.70, 3.13 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Stevenage 1.19, Sheffield Wednesday 0.99.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Model insights: Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stevenage at 37% here. Across 2813 settled matches, 2139 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday
Stevenage
- L0-1away to Leyton Orient19 September 2026
- W2-1Luton10 September 2026
- W5-1away to Barnsley5 September 2026
- D0-0away to Peterborough1 September 2026
- D2-2Doncaster29 August 2026
Sheffield Wednesday
- D0-0Stockport County19 September 2026
- D0-0Wigan12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Peterborough5 September 2026
- W2-1away to Wycombe1 September 2026
- W7-2Bromley29 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Stevenage | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
| 2 | Sheffield Wednesday | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday
- 14 February 2012Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 StevenageLeague One
- 13 September 2011Stevenage 5–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One
Leading scorers: Stevenage and Sheffield Wednesday
Stevenage
- D. Kemp3 goals1 assists
- O. Sanderson3 goals
Sheffield Wednesday
- J. Lowe4 goals1 assists
- L. Barry3 goals1 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Stevenage carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.31 for Sheffield Wednesday. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.19 goals for Stevenage and 0.99 for Sheffield Wednesday. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stevenage rate 0.48 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sheffield Wednesday rate 0.55 and 1.62.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sheffield Wednesday, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stevenage a 1.4% chance of the title and Sheffield Wednesday 1.2%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1314 correct results out of 2813 settled predictions (47%), with 270 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stevenage the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Stevenage against 0.99 for Sheffield Wednesday. Stevenage's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.62 for Sheffield Wednesday.