Sportivo Luqueno vs 2 de Mayo Division Profesional - Clausura prediction & result
Final score: Sportivo Luqueno 3-0 2 de Mayo.
Before kick-off the model made it 38% Sportivo Luqueno, 28% draw, 34% 2 de Mayo — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
Sportivo Luqueno at 38%: of 4,828 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.4% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals, and a card each of the 1 sending-off. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — Sportivo Luqueno vs 2 de Mayo
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1N. CampisiG
- 26O. LopezD
- 5J. DiazD
- 6F. WiechniakD
- 23A. CanteroD
- 37L. ComasM
- 18F. BobadillaM
- 14F. BenitezM
- 10G. BogadoM
- 19M. PérezF
- 20I. MaggiF
- 29T. MuroM
- 28A. BalbuenaD
- 34Á. MartínezM
- 33Jesús Emanuel Alonzo AlonzoF
- 21M. OjedaM
- 7K. PereiraF
- 25J. RamosM
- 11Ó. RuízF
- 9W. GonzálezF
- 1D. LerdaG
- 3A. VillalbaD
- 5C. SaizD
- 6C. RamírezD
- 19C. CastroD
- 16M. GómezM
- 10A. GómezM
- 24Ó. RomeroM
- 30A. FariñaM
- 31H. RiquelmeM
- 9J. SanguinaF
- 7F. CáceresF
- 37L. DelgadilloM
- 17P. DelvalleF
- 40Marcelo GonzálezF
- 2Rodrigo Antonio Gómez VillalbaD
- 27M. MoyaF
- 22T. PortilloF
- 32Mario RamírezG
- 21P. SosaD
Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs 2 de Mayo
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura
- W5-0away to Rubio NU5 November 2026
- L0-3Nacional Asuncion31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Libertad Asuncion23 October 2026
- W3-2Club Sp. San Lorenzo18 October 2026
2 de Mayo
Division Profesional - Clausura
- D0-0Sportivo Trinidense3 November 2026
- L0-1away to Club Guarani30 October 2026
- D1-1Deportivo Recoleta24 October 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Luqueno conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for Sportivo Luqueno had three goals or more.
- 2 de Mayo did not win any of these 4 matches.
- 2 de Mayo failed to score in 3 of these 4 matches.
- 2 de Mayo conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Sportivo Luqueno | 19 | 7 | 1 | 11 | 25 | 33 | -8 | 22 |
| 6 | 2 de Mayo | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 18 | 21 | -3 | 30 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs 2 de Mayo
- 1 September 20262 de Mayo 2–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 22 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 0–2 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 23 January 20262 de Mayo 1–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 3 October 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–3 2 de MayoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 25 July 20252 de Mayo 3–2 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 May 20252 de Mayo 1–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Luqueno and 2 de Mayo
Sportivo Luqueno
GoalsAssists
- I. Maggi52
2 de Mayo
GoalsAssists
- D. Acosta51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
Sportivo Luqueno beat 2 de Mayo 3–0. The model had made a win for Sportivo Luqueno its most likely outcome, at 38%, so the call held; the score it named was 2–1. The goals: Iván Maggi 16' for Sportivo Luqueno, Giovanni Bogado 75' for Sportivo Luqueno, Walter González 82' for Sportivo Luqueno. Sent off: Jorge Sanguina (2 de Mayo) 54'. On expected goals it finished 1.88–0.38.
What this result changed
Before kick-off the season simulation gave Sportivo Luqueno a 25.9% chance to finish in the bottom three: 12.1% after a win, 26.4% after a draw, 40.5% after a defeat. The win was the best of those results for them, and left the figure at 12.1%, 13.8 points lower than before the match.
For 2 de Mayo the question was the chance to finish in the top four, 39.8% going in: 61.6% after a win, 33.9% after a draw, 24.0% after a defeat. The defeat was the worst of those results for them, and left the figure at 24.0%, 15.8 points lower than before the match.
Read from our Division Profesional - Clausura season simulation as it stood before this match (10,000 runs), counting this result alone. Every result since then has moved the table again, so today's figure is on the competition page.
How the call on Sportivo Luqueno v 2 de Mayo has moved
First published on 1 Nov at 34% / 27% / 39% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 3 updates, it read 38% / 28% / 34%: the biggest move is 2 de Mayo's chance of winning, down 5 points.
- Sportivo Luqueno win38%▲ +4
- Draw28%▲ +1
- 2 de Mayo win34%▼ −5
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.