Ponte Preta
vs
Fortaleza EC
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Ponte Preta 0–2 Fortaleza EC
The model makes it 10% Ponte Preta, 17% draw, 73% Fortaleza EC — fair odds of 10.00, 5.88 and 1.37. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (12%).
Expected goals: Ponte Preta 0.70, Fortaleza EC 2.72.
Both teams to score: 47%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Fortaleza EC are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ponte Preta are bottom on 13 points from 33 games; Fortaleza EC are 4th on 57 points from 33 games — Serie B.
- Ponte Preta are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-5 defeat away to Novorizontino.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to CRB.
- Last 3 meetings: level at 1 win each, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 July 2026, ended Fortaleza EC 2–0 Ponte Preta.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fortaleza EC at 73% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
- L1-5away to Novorizontino12 October 2026
- L0-2Juventude7 October 2026
- L0-2away to Cuiaba3 October 2026
- L0-2away to Botafogo SP29 September 2026
- W1-0CRB20 September 2026
Fortaleza EC
- D2-2CRB12 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
- D2-2Athletic Club MG27 September 2026
- W2-1away to Londrina20 September 2026
What these results say
- Ponte Preta failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ponte Preta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Ponte Preta had two goals or fewer.
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 | Ponte Preta | 33 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 18 | 73 | -55 | 13 |
| 4 | Fortaleza EC | 33 | 15 | 12 | 6 | 39 | 29 | +10 | 57 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fortaleza EC
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
From our Serie B season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Ponte Preta vs Fortaleza EC
- 3 July 2026Fortaleza EC 2–0 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 26 October 2018Fortaleza EC 1–1 Ponte PretaSerie B
- 8 July 2018Ponte Preta 2–0 Fortaleza ECSerie B
Leading scorers: Ponte Preta and Fortaleza EC
Ponte Preta
No player in Serie B's leading scorers — 18 league goals as a side.
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton82
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Ponte Preta carry a model rating of 5.77 against 6.6 for Fortaleza EC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 0.70 goals for Ponte Preta and 2.72 for Fortaleza EC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ponte Preta rate 0.33 in attack and 2.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fortaleza EC rate 0.79 and 1.31.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Ponte Preta a 0% chance of the title and Fortaleza EC 7.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 73%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Ponte Preta against 2.72 for Fortaleza EC. Ponte Preta's attack/defence rating is 0.33/2.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.31 for Fortaleza EC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ponte Preta at home · Fortaleza EC away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Ponte Preta 33, Fortaleza EC 33.
Ponte Preta score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Fortaleza EC have let in 14 there.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Ponte Preta have let in 19 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Ponte Preta
- at Criciuma30 Oct · Serie Bwin 8%
- at Goias8 Nov · Serie Bwin 9%
- vs Operario-PR14 Nov · Serie Bwin 18%
Fortaleza EC
- vs Atletico Goianiense2 Nov · Serie Bwin 51%
- at Novorizontino7 Nov · Serie Bwin 27%
- vs Vila Nova14 Nov · Serie Bwin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.