Southampton
vs
QPR
Championship prediction
Our model says: Southampton 1–0 QPR
The model makes it 56% Southampton, 25% draw, 19% QPR — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Southampton 1.89, QPR 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Southampton: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Southampton are 7th on 17 points from 11 games; QPR are 9th on 17 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Southampton are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Bolton.
- QPR have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Birmingham.
- Last 6 meetings: Southampton 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2026, ended Southampton 5–0 QPR.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Southampton vs QPR
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Southampton at 56% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Southampton vs QPR
Southampton
- D0-0Bolton17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Norwich14 October 2026
- W1-0Portsmouth11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Wrexham19 September 2026
- W4-1Bristol City12 September 2026
QPR
- L0-3away to Birmingham17 October 2026
- W4-1Derby14 October 2026
- D1-1away to West Ham9 October 2026
- D2-2Preston19 September 2026
- D1-1away to West Brom12 September 2026
What these results say
- Southampton scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- QPR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- QPR scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Southampton | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 10 | +11 | 17 |
| 9 | QPR | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Southampton
Chance to finish in the top four · 54% today
QPR
Chance to finish in the top four · 5% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Southampton vs QPR
- 24 February 2026Southampton 5–0 QPRChampionship
- 5 November 2025QPR 1–2 SouthamptonChampionship
- 23 December 2023QPR 0–1 SouthamptonChampionship
- 26 August 2023Southampton 2–1 QPRChampionship
- 7 February 2015QPR 0–1 SouthamptonPremier League
- 27 September 2014Southampton 2–1 QPRPremier League
Leading scorers: Southampton and QPR
Southampton
GoalsAssists
- C. Larin70
- F. Azaz35
QPR
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 15 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Southampton carry a model rating of 6.79 against 6.54 for QPR. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Southampton and 0.90 for QPR. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Southampton rate 0.93 in attack and 1.05 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; QPR rate 0.72 and 1.35.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Southampton a 18% chance of the title and QPR 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Southampton the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Southampton against 0.90 for QPR. Southampton's attack/defence rating is 0.93/1.05 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.35 for QPR.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Southampton at home · QPR away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SouthamptonQPR
Southampton are 4th after 11 Championship matches (between 4th and 24th so far); QPR are 7th after 11 (between 1st and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Southampton 11, QPR 11.
Southampton score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); QPR have let in 0 there.
QPR score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Southampton have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Southampton
- at West Brom3 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
- at Preston7 Nov · Championshipwin 57%
- vs Derby21 Nov · Championshipwin 61%
- at Sheffield Utd24 Nov · Championshipwin 41%
QPR
- vs Burnley3 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Lincoln7 Nov · Championshipwin 49%
- at Millwall21 Nov · Championshipwin 27%
- at Norwich24 Nov · Championshipwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.