Nyiregyhaza
vs
Budapest Honved
NB I prediction
Our model says: Nyiregyhaza 2–1 Budapest Honved
The model makes it 39% Nyiregyhaza, 28% draw, 33% Budapest Honved — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nyiregyhaza 1.74, Budapest Honved 1.50.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Nyiregyhaza are 10th on 8 points from 8 games; Budapest Honved are 11th on 6 points from 7 games — NB I.
- Nyiregyhaza are without a win in 4, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Ferencvarosi TC.
- Budapest Honved have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Puskas Academy.
- Last 5 meetings: Nyiregyhaza 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2024, ended Budapest Honved 1–1 Nyiregyhaza.
All Hungarian NB I predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nyiregyhaza at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved
Nyiregyhaza
- D1-1Ferencvarosi TC20 September 2026
- L2-3away to Vasas4 September 2026
- D1-1Paks29 August 2026
- L1-2away to MTK Budapest22 August 2026
- W2-1Kisvarda FC15 August 2026
Budapest Honved
- L1-3away to Puskas Academy18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Gyori ETO FC6 September 2026
- W1-0Zalaegerszegi TE29 August 2026
- L1-2Vasas14 August 2026
- D2-2away to Paks9 August 2026
What these results say
- Nyiregyhaza scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nyiregyhaza conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Nyiregyhaza.
- Budapest Honved scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Budapest Honved conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Nyiregyhaza | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 11 | Budapest Honved | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nyiregyhaza vs Budapest Honved
- 11 February 2024Budapest Honved 1–1 NyiregyhazaNB II
- 13 August 2023Nyiregyhaza 0–0 Budapest HonvedNB II
- 19 September 2021Nyiregyhaza 1–5 Budapest HonvedMagyar Kupa
- 28 February 2015Nyiregyhaza 2–0 Budapest HonvedNB I
- 9 August 2014Budapest Honved 0–1 NyiregyhazaNB I
Leading scorers: Nyiregyhaza and Budapest Honved
Nyiregyhaza
- M. Kvasina2 goals
Budapest Honved
No player in NB I's leading scorers — 11 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nyiregyhaza carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.38 for Budapest Honved. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.74 goals for Nyiregyhaza and 1.50 for Budapest Honved. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nyiregyhaza rate 0.60 in attack and 1.58 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Budapest Honved rate 0.67 and 1.74.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nyiregyhaza a 0.1% chance of the title and Budapest Honved 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nyiregyhaza the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Nyiregyhaza against 1.50 for Budapest Honved. Nyiregyhaza's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.58 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.74 for Budapest Honved.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nyiregyhaza at home · Budapest Honved away
League matches only, NB I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All NB I matches this season: Nyiregyhaza 8, Budapest Honved 7.
Nyiregyhaza score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Budapest Honved have let in 6 there.
Budapest Honved score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Nyiregyhaza have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nyiregyhaza
- at Puskas Academy24 Oct · NB Iwin 28%
- at Ujpest31 Oct · NB Iwin 30%
- vs Gyori ETO FC7 Nov · NB Iwin 28%
- vs Debreceni VSC21 Nov · NB Iwin 36%
Budapest Honved
- vs Debreceni VSC24 Oct · NB Iwin 37%
- vs Kisvarda FC31 Oct · NB Iwin 40%
- at MTK Budapest7 Nov · NB Iwin 32%
- vs Paks21 Nov · NB Iwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.