Sassuolo
vs
Fiorentina
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sassuolo 2–1 Fiorentina
The model makes it 39% Sassuolo, 26% draw, 35% Fiorentina — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.61, Fiorentina 1.47.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 37% of the time, over 904 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 19 October 2026. Sassuolo's rating is built from 45 Serie A matches and Fiorentina's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 828 matches.
Key facts
- Sassuolo are 12th on 8 points from 7 games; Fiorentina are 19th on 4 points from 7 games — Serie A.
- Sassuolo are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat away to Frosinone.
- Fiorentina are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat at home to Como.
- Last 6 meetings: Fiorentina 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Fiorentina 0–0 Sassuolo.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sassuolo at 39% here. Across 4,271 settled matches (as of 19 October 2026), 3,310 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
Sassuolo
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
- D1-1AC Milan11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Monza18 September 2026
- W3-2Juventus13 September 2026
- D2-2away to Bologna6 September 2026
Fiorentina
- L1-3Como18 October 2026
- L1-2away to Genoa10 October 2026
- D1-1Napoli20 September 2026
- W4-2away to Venezia11 September 2026
- L1-2Torino5 September 2026
What these results say
- Sassuolo scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Sassuolo.
- Fiorentina scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Fiorentina conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Fiorentina.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Sassuolo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Fiorentina | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
- 26 April 2026Fiorentina 0–0 SassuoloSerie A
- 6 December 2025Sassuolo 3–1 FiorentinaSerie A
- 28 April 2024Fiorentina 5–1 SassuoloSerie A
- 6 January 2024Sassuolo 1–0 FiorentinaSerie A
- 2 June 2023Sassuolo 1–3 FiorentinaSerie A
- 7 January 2023Fiorentina 2–1 SassuoloSerie A
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Fiorentina
Sassuolo
GoalsAssists
- Vasilije Adžić31
Fiorentina
GoalsAssists
- Franco Mastantuono30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Sassuolo carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.84 for Fiorentina. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Sassuolo and 1.47 for Fiorentina. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sassuolo rate 1.07 in attack and 1.11 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Fiorentina rate 1.05 and 1.08.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,058 correct results out of 4,279 settled predictions (48%), with 431 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sassuolo the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Sassuolo against 1.47 for Fiorentina. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1.07/1.11 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.08 for Fiorentina.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sassuolo at home · Fiorentina away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SassuoloFiorentina
Sassuolo are 11th after 7 Serie A matches (between 9th and 15th so far); Fiorentina are 19th after 7 (between 15th and 20th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sassuolo 7, Fiorentina 7.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Fiorentina have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Sassuolo
- at AS Roma7 Nov · Serie Awin 13%
- vs Genoa22 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
- vs Napoli29 Nov · Serie Awin 24%
Fiorentina
- vs Juventus8 Nov · Serie Awin 26%
- at Monza23 Nov · Serie Awin 42%
- at Udinese29 Nov · Serie Awin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.