Newell's Old Boys
vs
Banfield
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 50% Newell's Old Boys, 22% draw, 28% Banfield — fair odds of 2.00, 4.55 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 2.02, Banfield 1.48.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Newell's Old Boys
- D2-2Boca Juniors2 August 2026
- L0-1away to Independiente31 July 2026
- W1-0Talleres Cordoba25 July 2026
- D1-1away to Velez Sarsfield4 May 2026
- D1-1Instituto Cordoba26 April 2026
Banfield
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Newell's Old Boys carry a model rating of 6.65 against 6.64 for Banfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Newell's Old Boys D-D-W-L-D; Banfield D-W-L-W-D.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 1.48 for Banfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newell's Old Boys rate 0.85 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Banfield rate 0.83 and 1.26.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 67% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Newell's Old Boys the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 1.48 for Banfield. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.85/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/1.26 for Banfield.