Palmeiras
vs
RB Bragantino
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Palmeiras 1–0 RB Bragantino
The model makes it 60% Palmeiras, 25% draw, 15% RB Bragantino — fair odds of 1.67, 4.00 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).
Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.86, RB Bragantino 0.70.
Both teams to score: 43%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Palmeiras are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Palmeiras are 2nd on 63 points from 30 games; RB Bragantino are 9th on 40 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Palmeiras are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 4-1 win at home to Corinthians.
- RB Bragantino have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win at home to Cruzeiro.
- Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended RB Bragantino 0–1 Palmeiras.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Palmeiras at 60% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
Palmeiras
- W4-1Corinthians11 October 2026
- W1-0Bahia9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gremio20 September 2026
- W2-0Sao Paulo12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Botafogo6 September 2026
RB Bragantino
- W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026
- D1-1Mirassol7 October 2026
- L0-1away to Atletico Mineiro3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Botafogo12 September 2026
What these results say
- Palmeiras went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Palmeiras kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Palmeiras had two goals or fewer.
- RB Bragantino conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 52 | 22 | +30 | 63 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 38 | 35 | +3 | 40 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Palmeiras
Chance to win the league · 41% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino
- 26 April 2026RB Bragantino 0–1 PalmeirasSerie A
- 15 October 2025Palmeiras 5–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
- 18 May 2025RB Bragantino 1–2 PalmeirasSerie A
- 28 January 2025Palmeiras 0–0 RB BragantinoPaulista - A1
- 5 October 2024RB Bragantino 0–0 PalmeirasSerie A
- 21 June 2024Palmeiras 2–1 RB BragantinoSerie A
Leading scorers: Palmeiras and RB Bragantino
Palmeiras
GoalsAssists
- J. López94
- Maurício71
RB Bragantino
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 38 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Palmeiras carry a model rating of 7.04 against 6.72 for RB Bragantino. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.86 goals for Palmeiras and 0.70 for RB Bragantino. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Palmeiras rate 1.07 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; RB Bragantino rate 0.85 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Palmeiras a 41.2% chance of the title and RB Bragantino 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Palmeiras the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Palmeiras against 0.70 for RB Bragantino. Palmeiras's attack/defence rating is 1.07/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1.1 for RB Bragantino.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Palmeiras at home · RB Bragantino away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Palmeiras 30, RB Bragantino 30.
RB Bragantino score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Palmeiras have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Palmeiras
- at Santos28 Oct · Serie Awin 40%
- vs Remo5 Nov · Serie Awin 67%
RB Bragantino
- vs Chapecoense28 Oct · Serie Awin 63%
- vs Santos2 Nov · Serie Awin 43%
- at Vitoria18 Nov · Serie Awin 33%
- vs Vasco da Gama22 Nov · Serie Awin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.