Oxford United
vs
Wigan
League One prediction
Our model says: Oxford United 1–0 Wigan
The model makes it 50% Oxford United, 29% draw, 21% Wigan — fair odds of 2.00, 3.45 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).
Expected goals: Oxford United 1.70, Wigan 0.72.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Oxford United are 10th on 11 points from 6 games; Wigan are bottom on 4 points from 7 games — League One.
- Oxford United are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Cambridge United.
- Wigan are without a win in 3, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Wycombe.
- Last 6 meetings: Oxford United 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 February 2024, ended Oxford United 4–2 Wigan.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oxford United vs Wigan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oxford United at 50% here. Across 3,056 settled matches (as of 6 October 2026), 707 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oxford United vs Wigan
Oxford United
- D1-1Cambridge United19 September 2026
- W3-0Burton Albion12 September 2026
- W4-0away to Leicester5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Huddersfield1 September 2026
- W2-1away to Stevenage22 August 2026
Wigan
- L0-1Wycombe19 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday12 September 2026
- L0-4Stockport County5 September 2026
- W3-1Milton Keynes Dons2 September 2026
- L0-1away to AFC Wimbledon30 August 2026
What these results say
- Oxford United scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Oxford United had three goals or more.
- Wigan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wigan conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Oxford United | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 11 |
| 24 | Wigan | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 12 | -7 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oxford United vs Wigan
- 13 February 2024Oxford United 4–2 WiganLeague One
- 24 October 2023Wigan 2–0 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 1 February 2022Wigan 1–1 Oxford UnitedLeague One
- 18 December 2021Oxford United 2–3 WiganLeague One
- 14 February 2021Oxford United 2–1 WiganLeague One
- 21 November 2020Wigan 1–2 Oxford UnitedLeague One
Leading scorers: Oxford United and Wigan
Oxford United
- G. O'Donkor3 goals1 assist
- M. Harris3 goals1 assist
Wigan
No player in League One's leading scorers — 5 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oxford United carry a model rating of 6.44 against 6.12 for Wigan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.70 goals for Oxford United and 0.72 for Wigan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oxford United rate 0.62 in attack and 1.41 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Wigan rate 0.41 and 1.80.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Oxford United a 15% chance of the title and Wigan 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,441 correct results out of 3,061 settled predictions (47%), with 302 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oxford United the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Oxford United against 0.72 for Wigan. Oxford United's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.41 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.41/1.8 for Wigan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oxford United at home · Wigan away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Oxford United 6, Wigan 7.
Oxford United score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Wigan have let in 3 there.
Wigan score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Oxford United have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Oxford United
- vs Bradford24 Oct · League Onewin 40%
- vs Stockport County27 Oct · League Onewin 41%
- at Barnsley31 Oct · League Onewin 43%
Wigan
- at Huddersfield24 Oct · League Onewin 22%
- at Leicester27 Oct · League Onewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.