Oțelul
vs
Csikszereda
Liga I prediction
Our model says: Oțelul 2–0 Csikszereda
The model makes it 51% Oțelul, 27% draw, 22% Csikszereda — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Oțelul 1.97, Csikszereda 0.92.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Published
Key facts
- Oțelul are 14th on 10 points from 10 games; Csikszereda are bottom on 1 point from 10 games — Liga I.
- Oțelul are without a win in 4, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Corvinul Hunedoara.
- Csikszereda have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Petrolul Ploiesti.
- Last 6 meetings: Oțelul 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 March 2026, ended Oțelul 2–3 Csikszereda.
All Romanian Liga I predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Oțelul vs Csikszereda
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Oțelul at 51% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Oțelul vs Csikszereda
Oțelul
- L2-3Corvinul Hunedoara21 September 2026
- L0-3away to Universitatea Cluj14 September 2026
- L0-1Rapid6 September 2026
- D2-2away to FC Voluntari28 August 2026
- W1-0Arges Pitesti24 August 2026
Csikszereda
- L0-2away to Petrolul Ploiesti21 September 2026
- L1-3Dinamo Bucuresti11 September 2026
- L1-5away to Uta Arad5 September 2026
- L2-3CFR 1907 Cluj29 August 2026
- L0-1away to FC Botosani24 August 2026
What these results say
- Oțelul failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Oțelul conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Csikszereda did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Csikszereda conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Oțelul | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Csikszereda | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Oțelul vs Csikszereda
- 14 March 2026Oțelul 2–3 CsikszeredaLiga I
- 26 January 2026Oțelul 3–0 CsikszeredaLiga I
- 2 December 2025Csikszereda 1–2 OțelulCupa României
- 1 September 2025Csikszereda 1–1 OțelulLiga I
- 30 October 2024Csikszereda 2–1 OțelulCupa României
- 3 March 2023Oțelul 1–0 CsikszeredaLiga II
Leading scorers: Oțelul and Csikszereda
Oțelul
- Patrick4 goals
Csikszereda
- M. Eppel4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Oțelul carry a model rating of 6.33 against 6.1 for Csikszereda. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.97 goals for Oțelul and 0.92 for Csikszereda. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Oțelul rate 0.63 in attack and 1.77 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Csikszereda rate 0.47 and 2.09.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Oțelul the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Oțelul against 0.92 for Csikszereda. Oțelul's attack/defence rating is 0.63/1.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.09 for Csikszereda.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Oțelul at home · Csikszereda away
League matches only, Liga I, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga I matches this season: Oțelul 10, Csikszereda 10.
Oțelul score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Csikszereda have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Oțelul
- at Farul Constanta24 Oct · Liga Iwin 29%
- vs Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe31 Oct · Liga Iwin 41%
- at FC Botosani7 Nov · Liga Iwin 28%
- at CFR 1907 Cluj21 Nov · Liga Iwin 23%
Csikszereda
- vs FC Voluntari24 Oct · Liga Iwin 39%
- at Rapid31 Oct · Liga Iwin 15%
- vs Universitatea Cluj7 Nov · Liga Iwin 26%
- vs Corvinul Hunedoara21 Nov · Liga Iwin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.