Manta FC
vs
Deportivo Cuenca
Liga Pro prediction
Our model says: Manta FC 1–0 Deportivo Cuenca
The model makes it 37% Manta FC, 31% draw, 32% Deportivo Cuenca — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Manta FC 1.15, Deportivo Cuenca 1.01.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Manta FC are 16th on 27 points from 32 games; Deportivo Cuenca are 12th on 38 points from 32 games — Liga Pro, Relegation Group.
- Manta FC are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Tecnico Universitario.
- Deportivo Cuenca are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Orense SC.
- Last 6 meetings: Deportivo Cuenca 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 August 2026, ended Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Manta FC.
More Ecuador LigaPro predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Manta FC at 37% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca
Manta FC
- W1-0Tecnico Universitario10 October 2026
- W2-1Orense SC21 September 2026
- D0-0Aucas12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Emelec8 September 2026
- L3-4away to Macara2 September 2026
Deportivo Cuenca
- D0-0away to Orense SC11 October 2026
- D1-1Mushuc Runa SC20 September 2026
- D1-1away to LDU de Quito13 September 2026
- L0-1Libertad7 September 2026
- W1-0Guayaquil City FC2 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for Deportivo Cuenca had two goals or fewer.
- Deportivo Cuenca failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Pro table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Manta FC | 32 | 7 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 43 | -23 | 27 |
| 12 | Deportivo Cuenca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 26 | 38 | -12 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Deportivo Cuenca
Chance to win the league · 21% today
From our Liga Pro season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Manta FC vs Deportivo Cuenca
- 11 August 2026Deportivo Cuenca 1–2 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 19 April 2026Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 23 August 2025Manta FC 0–1 Deportivo CuencaLiga Pro
- 3 May 2025Deportivo Cuenca 2–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
- 22 July 2024Manta FC 1–3 Deportivo CuencaCopa Ecuador
- 7 August 2021Deportivo Cuenca 1–0 Manta FCLiga Pro
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Manta FC carry a model rating of 6.25 against 6.34 for Deportivo Cuenca. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.15 goals for Manta FC and 1.01 for Deportivo Cuenca. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Manta FC rate 0.50 in attack and 1.68 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Cuenca rate 0.50 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manta FC the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Manta FC against 1.01 for Deportivo Cuenca. Manta FC's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.68 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.42 for Deportivo Cuenca.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Manta FC at home · Deportivo Cuenca away
League matches only, Liga Pro, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Liga Pro matches this season: Manta FC 31, Deportivo Cuenca 31.
Manta FC score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); Deportivo Cuenca have let in 2 there.
Deportivo Cuenca score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Manta FC have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Manta FC
- at Mushuc Runa SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 22%
- at Tecnico Universitario8 Nov · Liga Prowin 28%
- vs Delfin SC22 Nov · Liga Prowin 39%
- at Deportivo Cuenca29 Nov · Liga Prowin 24%
Deportivo Cuenca
- at Delfin SC1 Nov · Liga Prowin 29%
- vs Orense SC8 Nov · Liga Prowin 42%
- at Tecnico Universitario22 Nov · Liga Prowin 32%
- vs Manta FC29 Nov · Liga Prowin 46%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.