National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla Premier League prediction & result
Final score: National Bank of Egypt 3-1 Ghazl El Mehalla.
Before kick-off the model made it 43% National Bank of Egypt, 29% draw, 28% Ghazl El Mehalla — fair odds of 2.33, 3.45 and 3.57. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
The model called the result correctly.
Published · updated
All Egyptian Premier League predictions →
Has the model earned this number?
It puts National Bank of Egypt at 43% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
How the model saw it, minute by minute
Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 4 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.
Match analysis
Match timeline
Match stats — National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla
Goals against chances
Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.
Line-ups
- 1Ahmed SobhiG
- 13ShefoD
- 6M. El Gazzar
- 33D. Cyril
- 12A. MetebD
- 14A. HamdiM
- 30Y. AnnorM
- 25BencharkiM
- 21A. Madbouli
- 9O. FaisalM
- 29A. RayanF
- 27A. El BaloutiG
- 7Hisham SalehD
- 20A. MedhatD
- 8R. El MetwalyM
- 17M. NaserM
- 19S. BouchamaM
- 22Anderson CearaM
- 23OufaF
- 11M. Shalaby
- 16A. AmerG
- 23F. NechatD
- 3A. El AashD
- 4A. ShoushaD
- 12Y. ZakariaD
- 20M. ToureM
- 17A. ShikaM
- 63A. Yehia
- 7M. Ashraf
- 41S. KibouM
- 99Hazem El AskryF
- 1A. El Nafarawy
- 15A. GamalD
- 5A. ShetaM
- 66A. Rashdan
- 9R. ArfaouiF
- 14A. EmadM
- 8M. AbdelsalamM
- 11M. EkbadF
- 30A. GomaaF
Form going into National Bank of Egypt vs Ghazl El Mehalla
National Bank of Egypt
All competitions we cover
- W1-0away to Asyut Petrol31 August 2026
Ghazl El Mehalla
Premier League
- D0-0Enppi1 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | National Bank of Egypt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 11 |
| 18 | Ghazl El Mehalla | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table
Leading scorers: National Bank of Egypt and Ghazl El Mehalla
National Bank of Egypt
GoalsAssists
- S. Bouchama20
Ghazl El Mehalla
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The result against the call
National Bank of Egypt beat Ghazl El Mehalla 3–1. The model had made a win for National Bank of Egypt its most likely outcome, at 43%, so the call held; the score it named was 1–0. The goals: O. Faisal 16' for National Bank of Egypt, A. Rayan 32' for National Bank of Egypt, A. Yehia 44' for Ghazl El Mehalla, O. Faisal 48' for National Bank of Egypt. On expected goals it finished 1.54–0.73.
How the call on National Bank of Egypt v Ghazl El Mehalla has moved
First published on 1 Sep at 41% / 30% / 29% (home / draw / away). By kick-off, after 1 update, it read 43% / 29% / 28%: the biggest move is National Bank of Egypt's chance of winning, up 2 points.
- National Bank of Egypt win43%▲ +2
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Ghazl El Mehalla win28%▼ −1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.