Nautico Recife
vs
Vila Nova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Nautico Recife 2–1 Vila Nova
The model makes it 38% Nautico Recife, 28% draw, 34% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.63, 3.57 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Nautico Recife 1.57, Vila Nova 1.39.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published
Key facts
- Nautico Recife are 13th on 42 points from 31 games; Vila Nova are 2nd on 54 points from 30 games — Serie B.
- Nautico Recife have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fortaleza EC.
- Vila Nova are unbeaten in 4, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Londrina.
- Last 6 meetings: Vila Nova 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 20 June 2026, ended Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico Recife.
All Brazilian Serie B predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nautico Recife at 38% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
- D1-1away to Fortaleza EC3 October 2026
- W3-1Sport Recife26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Cuiaba22 September 2026
- D3-3Operario-PR15 September 2026
- L1-2away to America Mineiro9 September 2026
Vila Nova
- W2-0Londrina25 September 2026
- W1-0America Mineiro18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Avai15 September 2026
- W2-0Goias10 September 2026
- L0-5away to Athletic Club MG4 September 2026
What these results say
- Nautico Recife conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Nautico Recife scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Vila Nova had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Nautico Recife | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 39 | 38 | +1 | 42 |
| 2 | Vila Nova | 30 | 16 | 6 | 8 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 54 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nautico Recife vs Vila Nova
- 20 June 2026Vila Nova 4–3 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 9 March 2023Nautico Recife 2–1 Vila NovaCopa Do Brasil
- 20 August 2022Nautico Recife 1–2 Vila NovaSerie B
- 6 May 2022Vila Nova 2–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 11 September 2021Vila Nova 1–0 Nautico RecifeSerie B
- 15 June 2021Nautico Recife 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
Leading scorers: Nautico Recife and Vila Nova
Nautico Recife
- Vinícius8 goals3 assists
Vila Nova
- André Luís8 goals2 assists
- Janderson6 goals7 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Nautico Recife carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.43 for Vila Nova. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.57 goals for Nautico Recife and 1.39 for Vila Nova. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nautico Recife rate 0.64 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vila Nova rate 0.65 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vila Nova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nautico Recife a 0% chance of the title and Vila Nova 12.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nautico Recife the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Nautico Recife against 1.39 for Vila Nova. Nautico Recife's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.51 for Vila Nova.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nautico Recife at home · Vila Nova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Nautico Recife 31, Vila Nova 30.
Nautico Recife score most often in the 76–90 minute window (14 goals); Vila Nova have let in 9 there.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Nautico Recife have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nautico Recife
- at Goias19 Oct · Serie Bwin 32%
- at Juventude24 Oct · Serie Bwin 22%
- vs Avai31 Oct · Serie Bwin 46%
- vs CRB7 Nov · Serie Bwin 41%
Vila Nova
- vs Novorizontino18 Oct · Serie Bwin 34%
- at São Bernardo24 Oct · Serie Bwin 30%
- vs Juventude31 Oct · Serie Bwin 36%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.