RED Star FC 93
vs
Saint Etienne
Ligue 2 prediction
Our model says: RED Star FC 93 0–1 Saint Etienne
The model makes it 35% RED Star FC 93, 29% draw, 36% Saint Etienne — fair odds of 2.86, 3.45 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: RED Star FC 93 1.30, Saint Etienne 1.34.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- RED Star FC 93 are 2nd on 14 points from 7 games; Saint Etienne are top on 16 points from 7 games — Ligue 2.
- RED Star FC 93 are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 3-1 win away to Guingamp.
- Saint Etienne have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Metz.
- Last 3 meetings: Saint Etienne 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 7 March 2026, ended Saint Etienne 2–0 RED Star FC 93.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Saint Etienne at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93
- W3-1away to Guingamp19 September 2026
- W1-0Metz14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Laval4 September 2026
- L1-4Reims29 August 2026
- D1-1away to Boulogne21 August 2026
Saint Etienne
- D2-2away to Metz19 September 2026
- L1-2away to Dunkerque12 September 2026
- W3-1Montpellier5 September 2026
- W3-2away to Dijon31 August 2026
- W4-0Grenoble22 August 2026
What these results say
- RED Star FC 93 scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- RED Star FC 93 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for RED Star FC 93.
- Saint Etienne scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Saint Etienne had three goals or more.
- Saint Etienne conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | RED Star FC 93 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 14 |
| 1 | Saint Etienne | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | +11 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RED Star FC 93 vs Saint Etienne
- 7 March 2026Saint Etienne 2–0 RED Star FC 93Ligue 2
- 1 November 2025RED Star FC 93 2–1 Saint EtienneLigue 2
- 10 February 2015RED Star FC 93 1–2 Saint EtienneCoupe de France
Leading scorers: RED Star FC 93 and Saint Etienne
RED Star FC 93
- D. Durand4 goals
Saint Etienne
- I. Cardona4 goals4 assists
- A. Boakye4 goals3 assists
- T. Ballo4 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
RED Star FC 93 carry a model rating of 6.49 against 6.6 for Saint Etienne. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.30 goals for RED Star FC 93 and 1.34 for Saint Etienne. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RED Star FC 93 rate 0.70 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Saint Etienne rate 0.76 and 1.26.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives RED Star FC 93 a 7.7% chance of the title and Saint Etienne 33.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Saint Etienne the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.30 expected goals for RED Star FC 93 against 1.34 for Saint Etienne. RED Star FC 93's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.76/1.26 for Saint Etienne.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
RED Star FC 93 at home · Saint Etienne away
League matches only, Ligue 2, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 2 matches this season: RED Star FC 93 7, Saint Etienne 7.
RED Star FC 93 score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Saint Etienne have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
RED Star FC 93
- at Montpellier24 Oct · Ligue 2win 29%
- vs Nancy2 Nov · Ligue 2win 43%
- at Dijon6 Nov · Ligue 2win 34%
- vs PAU20 Nov · Ligue 2win 45%
Saint Etienne
- vs Nantes24 Oct · Ligue 2win 38%
- at Guingamp31 Oct · Ligue 2win 41%
- vs Laval6 Nov · Ligue 2win 52%
- at Reims20 Nov · Ligue 2win 32%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.