Esteghlal FC
vs
Gol Gohar
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Esteghlal FC 1–0 Gol Gohar
The model makes it 56% Esteghlal FC, 25% draw, 19% Gol Gohar — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Esteghlal FC 1.89, Gol Gohar 0.90.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Esteghlal FC: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Esteghlal FC are 3rd on 16 points from 8 games; Gol Gohar are 7th on 13 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Esteghlal FC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (1 won), most recently a 1-1 draw away to Tractor Sazi.
- Gol Gohar have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Esteghlal Khuzestan.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 28 December 2025, ended Esteghlal FC 0–1 Gol Gohar.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Esteghlal FC vs Gol Gohar
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Esteghlal FC at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Esteghlal FC vs Gol Gohar
Esteghlal FC
- D1-1away to Tractor Sazi8 October 2026
- W1-0Paykan10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Aluminium Arak6 September 2026
- D1-1Persepolis FC2 September 2026
- D0-0away to Foolad FC28 August 2026
Gol Gohar
- W3-0Esteghlal Khuzestan8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Shams Azar Qazvin10 September 2026
- L0-1away to Tractor Sazi5 September 2026
- L0-2Aluminium Arak1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Sepahan FC28 August 2026
What these results say
- Esteghlal FC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Esteghlal FC had two goals or fewer.
- Esteghlal FC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gol Gohar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Esteghlal FC | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 16 |
| 7 | Gol Gohar | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Esteghlal FC
Chance to finish in the top four · 80% today
Gol Gohar
Chance to finish in the top four · 14% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Esteghlal FC vs Gol Gohar
- 28 December 2025Esteghlal FC 0–1 Gol GoharPersian Gulf Pro League
- 16 April 2025Gol Gohar 1–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
- 16 December 2024Esteghlal FC 0–0 Gol GoharPersian Gulf Pro League
- 27 October 2024Esteghlal FC 1–1 Gol GoharPersian Gulf Pro League
- 28 May 2024Esteghlal FC 1–0 Gol GoharPersian Gulf Pro League
- 24 December 2023Gol Gohar 1–1 Esteghlal FCPersian Gulf Pro League
The two sides
Esteghlal FC carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.46 for Gol Gohar. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Esteghlal FC and 0.90 for Gol Gohar. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Esteghlal FC rate 0.74 in attack and 1.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gol Gohar rate 0.72 and 1.57.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Esteghlal FC a 16.2% chance of the title and Gol Gohar 0.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Esteghlal FC the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Esteghlal FC against 0.90 for Gol Gohar. Esteghlal FC's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.72/1.57 for Gol Gohar.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Esteghlal FC at home · Gol Gohar away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Esteghlal FC 8, Gol Gohar 8.
Esteghlal FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Gol Gohar have let in 1 there.
Gol Gohar score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Esteghlal FC have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Esteghlal FC
- at Chadormalu SC22 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 45%
- at Shabab Al Ahli Dubai27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 27%
- vs Shams Azar Qazvin30 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 63%
- vs Al Shamal3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 64%
- at Esteghlal Khuzestan7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 53%
Gol Gohar
- vs Kheybar Khorramabad23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 52%
- at Sanat Naft31 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 48%
- vs ZOB Ahan8 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.