Fajr Sepasi
vs
Paykan
Persian Gulf Pro League prediction
Our model says: Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Paykan
The model makes it 41% Fajr Sepasi, 28% draw, 31% Paykan — fair odds of 2.44, 3.57 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fajr Sepasi 1.49, Paykan 1.21.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fajr Sepasi are 8th on 10 points from 8 games; Paykan are 9th on 9 points from 8 games — Persian Gulf Pro League.
- Fajr Sepasi have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Aluminium Arak.
- Paykan have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Shams Azar Qazvin.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 1 win each, 3 draws; the most recent, 1 November 2025, ended Paykan 2–2 Fajr Sepasi.
More Persian Gulf Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fajr Sepasi at 41% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan
Fajr Sepasi
- W2-1Aluminium Arak13 October 2026
- L1-6away to Sepahan FC8 October 2026
- L0-1away to Foolad FC7 September 2026
- D1-1Mes Shahr-e Babak3 September 2026
- D0-0ZOB Ahan29 August 2026
Paykan
- D1-1Shams Azar Qazvin10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Esteghlal FC10 September 2026
- W2-0Sanat Naft6 September 2026
- L0-1away to ZOB Ahan2 September 2026
- D0-0Esteghlal Khuzestan28 August 2026
What these results say
- Fajr Sepasi failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fajr Sepasi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Paykan had two goals or fewer.
- Paykan failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Persian Gulf Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Fajr Sepasi | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Paykan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fajr Sepasi
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 4% today
Paykan
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 2% today
From our Persian Gulf Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fajr Sepasi vs Paykan
- 1 November 2025Paykan 2–2 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
- 25 February 2025Paykan 1–1 Fajr SepasiAzadegan League
- 9 October 2024Fajr Sepasi 0–2 PaykanAzadegan League
- 28 February 2022Fajr Sepasi 1–1 PaykanPersian Gulf Pro League
- 19 November 2021Paykan 0–1 Fajr SepasiPersian Gulf Pro League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fajr Sepasi carry a model rating of 6.26 against 6.31 for Paykan. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.49 goals for Fajr Sepasi and 1.21 for Paykan. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fajr Sepasi rate 0.60 in attack and 1.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Paykan rate 0.51 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fajr Sepasi the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Fajr Sepasi against 1.21 for Paykan. Fajr Sepasi's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/1.53 for Paykan.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fajr Sepasi at home · Paykan away
League matches only, Persian Gulf Pro League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Persian Gulf Pro League matches this season: Fajr Sepasi 8, Paykan 8.
Paykan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Fajr Sepasi have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fajr Sepasi
- at Nassaji Mazandaran25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Tractor Sazi29 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 23%
- at Persepolis FC6 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 13%
Paykan
- vs Malavan25 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 46%
- at Mes Shahr-e Babak31 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 35%
- vs Nassaji Mazandaran7 Nov · Persian Gulf Pro Leaguewin 43%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.